I couldn’t quite come to terms with Tim Habel’s story in today’s Herald Sun bemoaning the small field of five in tomorrow’s Group 2 Zipping Classic (2400m, Sandown) and blaming Australia’s dearth of stayers as the reason.

The Zipping Classic (ex Sandown Classic) rarely attracts a big field because of the simple fact that it is a weight-for-age race—why would the average stayer want to take on a Melbourne Cup winner at level weights, especially when there is a handicap option, the Sandown Cup (3200m), on the program? The Cup has attracted 10 starters.

Furthermore, these staying races are being run at the end of a long campaign that had plenty of options for Australian stayers. For example, we had no trouble filling fields for the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m, Caulfield), Group 2 Herbert Power Handicap (2400m, Caulfield), the Group 3 The Lexus (2500m, Flemington) and the Listed Bendigo Cup (2400m).

Weight-for-age races rarely attract bumper fields, so a weight-for-age race over 2400 metres for tired stayers at the end of the carnival is rarely going to fill the starting stalls. A look through the records of Sydney’s autumn staying highlight, the Group 1 The BMW (WFA, 2400m, Rosehill), will show that race often attracts small numbers.

This lamenting about our staying stocks is getting tiresome, especially the claim that we can’t breed good stayers—tell that to the breeders of Viewed and Shocking, two recent Melbourne Cup winners who are Australian bred. Also, the Caulfield Cup winner, Southern Speed, Cox Plate winner, Pinker Pinker, and Bendigo Cup winner, Tanby, who are Australian bred.

Breeding a stayer is not the issue—training one is.

The French-bred Melbourne Cup winner, Dunaden, could easily have been born in Australia. Dunaden has a terrible pedigree—he’s the only Stakes winner under the first EIGHT dams and the only Stakes winner by his sprinter/miler sire, Nicobar, a son of the speed influence Indian Ridge.

Dunaden, who cost only 1500 euro as a weanling because of his shoddy family, could easily have come from any farm in Australia. In his case, he was lucky that people along the way recognised his talent and his good attitude, but more importantly he was trained to stay.

His owners didn’t need to be especially patient, as the little horse raced as a late-season two-year-old, like many Australian horses.

It’s the attitude towards teaching horses to stay that needs to change, not breeding stayers.

Top New Zealand trainer John Wheeler made his name in Australia in the 1980s with two Australian-bred “speed” horses he bought in Australia, Our Poetic Prince (by Yeats from a Biscay mare) and Flying Luskin (by Luskin Star from an Authentic Heir mare). Our Poetic Prince won a Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m) and a Group 1 Tancred Stakes (2400m)—now The BMW—while Flying Luskin won a Group 1 Wellington Cup (3200m).

Wheeler told me that he believed that most horses could be trained to stay, or at least trained to get more ground than their pedigrees might suggest. Both Our Poetic Prince and Flying Luskin, according to Wheeler, were trained to stay.

Maybe we should pay the great Bart Cummings or Australia’s best-credentialled “strapper”, Lee Freedman, to take some seminars on how to train a Melbourne Cup winner. Not the worst idea I have come up with.

At the moment, Australia has more high-class staying sires than ever before, headed by Epsom Derby winners New Approach and Authorized, So You Think’s sire High Chaparral, Shocking’s sire Street Cry and recent additions such as French Derby winner Lope De Vega and Victoria Derby winner Monaco Consul.

We also have some of the best Sir Tristram and Zabeel bloodlines in our female families, so there is no excuse that our breeding industry is ignorant of stayers, although there certainly is an unhealthy push from breeders and racing administrators towards precocious speed.

Malua Racing’s Troy Corstens told me recently that the easiest syndicate to put together after the yearling sales was his “Stayers’ Syndicate” of horses bought in New Zealand—“I could have done it three times over”—so it also is not true that Australian owners are not interested in stayers, or lack the patience to own one.

There has been a flood of money heading overseas in search of a Melbourne Cup winner, and that won’t stop, but it will slow down when someone takes the time to study the results (and the bank balance)—so far one winner, Americain—from a small fortune spent.

Lloyd Williams has forked out a ransom in Europe buying Group 1 winners, Epsom and Irish Derby placegetters and countless others by Galileo and Montjeu, and he’s hardly had a Cup starter from a barn full of expensive imports.

That’s money that could and should be spent in Australia. Those at the head of the Australian breeding industry should not only be worried about that exodus of money, but also should be working on ideas to encourage Australians to breed and buy stayers—maybe bonuses for horses aged four and older winning races beyond 1800 metres would encourage investment and also encourage administrators to programme more staying races.

In France, they have it right. No wonder horses are difficult to buy from France, where the French-bred owners’ bonus scheme carries on for the racing life of the horse—whereas our SuperVOBIS and BOBS schemes are aimed at the more precocious of the breed.

Maybe it’s time to stop the sooking and take some action.

Photo: The Australian-bred Pinker Pinker, winner of the G1 Cox Plate.

There’s not much else to say about Black Caviar as her unbeaten streak marches to 16, but I’ll try.

The big mare strolled home to win her second Group 1 Patinack Farm Classic (1200m) at Flemington without raising a sweat or jockey Luke Nolen releasing his grip on the reins. She ran the 1200 metres in 1.08.32—only 1.2 secs outside Iglesia’s track record. Has a horse ever gone as fast in second gear?

It was on this race last year that Black Caviar launched her career beyond the promising to stardom. It was her first Group 1 win and she treated a crack field of rivals with contempt.

Twelve months on and a lot has changed. Black Caviar has now won seven Group 1 races and her challengers are falling like soccer players after an ankle tap. The procession of her wins now is against opposition, although more than capable at Group 1 level, but vastly inferior to one of the great champions of the Australian turf.

Racing’s ardent followers, and even trainer Peter Moody, are enjoying the ride, but there is a feeling of going through the paces. Black Caviar needs a challenge and we need to be able to marvel at what she can achieve, rather that cheer another “walk in the park”. The growing hoards of non-racing fans couldn’t care less.

Certainly, the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes (1200m, Ascot) in Perth a few weeks will be a tougher assignment for Black Caviar than her three jog-trots in Melbourne this spring.

The simple fact she will have to travel into strange surroundings and compete against opposition unknown gives us hope of some sort of contest. Many “a eastern stater” has accepted the invitation across the Nullabor only to find the reception hostile and uncompromising. I am not suggesting that Black Caviar won’t be lauded, but the parochial people from Perth will give her no easy ride. Jockeys will try to take her on and put her out of her comfort zone.

Moody said he will make a decision on a Perth trip for Black Caviar after seeing how she is on Monday or Tuesday. The horse comes first.

In the autumn, Black Caviar will be set for races beyond 1200 metres for the first time in the Group 1 C F Orr Stakes (1400m, Caulfield) and the Group 1 Futurity Stakes (1400m, Caulfield). That task alone will spark a lot of interest—as I said there is nothing more exciting that a trip into the unknown. Moody is confident Black Caviar can be even more imposing and dominant over more ground against horse without her amazing turn-of-foot.

After that, Moody has the option of taking the mare to Sydney for her 20^th start in the Group 1 Queen of the Turf (1600m, Randwick) before heading to England for Royal Ascot in June.

If all goes to plan, Black Caviar will present to the Queen on the famous Royal course near Windsor unbeaten in 20 starts. There will be nothing ho-hum about that.

Despite the hullabaloo about the quality of the BMW Caulfield Cup field, I think the winner, Southern Speed, is an exceptional mare, and one who is continuing the incredible modern dominance of fillies and mares in world racing.

On the back of the female trifecta in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp, Southern Speed became the 11^th four-year-old mare to win Australia’s premier 2400m handicap from a quality list of 20 mares and one 3YO filly who have won the famous race in its 134-year history. She also is the first since Let’s Elope (1991) not to win an Oaks as a three-year-old—although she finished third behind Lights Of Heaven and Absolutely in a strong edition of the 2011 Group 1 Schweppes Oaks (2000m, Morphettville).

And despite all the cries of despair about whether the Australian breeding industry can produce quality stayers, Southern Speed (b or br m 2007, Southern Image (USA)-Golden Eagle (NZ), by Zabeel (NZ)) is Australian bred, as are recent Melbourne Cup winners Viewed and Shocking, and recent Caulfield Cup winners Viewed, Railings, Elvstroem, Mummify, Northerly and Diatribe.

After watching the replay over and over again, I came to the conclusion that Southern Speed, thanks to a good barrier and a clever behind-the-pace ride from Craig Williams, won as easily as any recent Caulfield Cup winner. It was a soft win.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. On reflection, Southern Speed ticked a lot of boxes—light weight, good barrier, good jockey, good trainer and the right, solid weight-for-age form leading into the race. Her second behind Lion Tamer in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes (WFA, 1800m, Caulfield) on September 17 was a bottler, as was her fourth behind December Draw in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (SWP, 2000m) at Flemington on October 2.

The query was her ability to run a strong 2400 metres—before the Caulfield Cup she hadn’t won beyond 1400 metres—although she is from a mare by the great staying influence, Zabeel, and she looks every bit “a Zabeel” with her size, length, rein and long, loping stride.

The Zabeel influence should never be underestimated—the great stallion can inject stamina into the fastest of pedigrees. Southern Speed’s granddam, the Australian-bred Rising Eagle is a sister to Golden Slipper winner Ha Ha (by Danehill from Very Droll, by Crown Jester from a half-sister to Rory’s Jester). Southern Speed’s female bottom line is Golden Slipper royalty through and through—Danehill, Crown Jester, Rory’s Jester, Baguette, Star Kingdom and Vain’s sire Wilkes.

History may not be kind to the overall depth of the 2011 Caulfield Cup, but in the next 12 months Southern Speed could well prove that we have underrated her.

Photo: Southern Speed (Craig Williams) winning Saturday’s Group 1 BMW Caulfield Cup. (Sean Garnsworthy, Slattery Media Group).

They won’t beat him

Journalist and raconteur, the late Peter “Skinny” Bye, who went by the moniker of the  “biggest man of trotting”, had the unnerving habit of giving the answer and leaving the rest of us at The Sporting Globe to ponder the question.

“They won’t take six,” he declared one morning, thumping the desk as he strode by – we were left to scratching out heads; who won’t take six, and what was the six?

It took a week to find the question – “the who” was the men of the loading dock at the Herald & Weekly Times, and “the what” was the bundles of newspapers. It seems that the workers were threatening a strike if they had to lift more than five stacks of newspapers.

Here’s my Peter Bye impersonation from yesterday’s Flemington meeting: “They won’t beat him.” Thump.

I suspect that’s not too confusing an answer without question to anyone who saw December Draw win the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m), nudging out Glass Harmonium in a thrilling finish.

I don’t see how December Draw can be beaten in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m, Caulfield) in two weeks. Others seem to have a fear about him running 2400 metres, but that’s the least of my concerns, he’ll run it on his ear.

It’s the first time I have had a chance to have a good look at December Draw, and I was surprised – there’s nothing of him. In defiance of speed-oriented pedigree (b g 2006, Medecis (GB)-New York (IRE), by Danzero), he’s built like a stayer – narrow and lean – just as an Ethiopian distance runner is shaped compared to the powerhouse sprinter Usain Bolt.

December Draw produced a terrific performance to win the Turnbull. He worked from the gate, and then took cover while Glass Harmonium bowled along at a good tempo. Jockey Michael Rodd said he made his run in the straight too early, and then corrected himself, which cost December Draw momentum. In the end it was courage and class that saw the imported gelding get up on the line.

“That run will top him off nicely, bring him to his peak,” trainer Mark Kavanagh said – Kavanagh also admonished Rodd for his impatience.

December Draw goes into the Caulfield Cup at his fifth run, winning three consecutive times over 2000 metres, building from a handicap to Group 3 (Naturalism Stakes) to Group 1. It’s a brilliant progression through the classes, and he drops nicely to 52kg (expected to rise 2kg at acceptance time) under the handicap conditions of the Caulfield Cup. If he’s not ready to run a strong 2400 metres, no horse will be.

December Draw reminds me in style and ability of a very good horse, Suleiman, who emerged in the spring to start a short-priced favourite (6/4) in the Caulfield Cup in 1979, only to finish third to Mighty Kingdom after a luckless run ­– only bad luck will beat December Draw.

Glass Harmonium’s prancing pre-race antics are a joy to watch, but they worry me when it comes to him settling well enough to win a Caulfield Cup. However, trainer Mike Moroney might consider that a tough run in the Caulfield Cup could be just what is needed to take the edge of the big grey for a Cox Plate (2040m, Moonee Valley) assignment seven days later. That’s the way I’d be going.

The solid performances of Playing God (third) and Southern Speed (fourth) franked Lion Tamer’s winning form from the Group 1 Underwood Stakes at Caulfield. Both are heading to the Caulfield Cup with some claims of being in the money. Lion Tamer looks poised to win Saturday’s Group 1 Yalumba Stakes (2000m, Caulfield) as his final lead-up to the Cox Plate.

Rekindled Interest (fifth) looked a bit wintery in the coat in the parade and he raced as though he needed the run, looming wide out at the 200 metres, only to peak on his run. On face value, it was a good effort to get close to the first two, coming from near last at the 500m. Trainer Jim Conlan has three weeks to prime the gelding for the Cox Plate. I expect him to be a more formidable opponent on his favourite surface at Moonee Valley, but I worry that these conservative riding tactics will see him unable to get close to horses like Lion Tamer and Jimmy Choux, who will race close to the speed.

Absolutely (sixth) ran a nice Caulfield Cup trial. Trainer Mick Kent said Caulfield is the AJC Oaks winner’s mission as he doubts she is seasoned enough to progress to a Melbourne Cup this spring.

It was good to see Shamrocker (seventh) run back into form after a shocker in the Underwood. She looked under pressure at the 400m, but she got going late between horses. The mare presented a picture in the parade.

Precedence (10^th) ran well enough for a handicapper. He’s ready for the Bart Cummings polish, while Linton (12^th) raced as though he has issues by pulling and hanging.

The final word goes to the grand old grey, Efficient, who got home late between horses for eighth in his first run for two years. Oh, if only Lloyd Williams and his team can keep him sound. Maybe the Group 2 Zipping Classic (2400m, Sandown) is his race.

Photo: Mark Kavanagh, trainer of December Draw. Picture Lachlan Cunningam, Slattery Media Group

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, and it’s possible jockey Seamie Heffernan might regret going back on So You Think in the Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (2400m, Longchamp) last night.

So You Think sat near last on a fast pace – set by his stablemates – but at no stage did he get into the race to look a winning chance. He got home late for fourth behind the brilliant German filly Danedream, who smashed the Arc race record (her time was 2 min 24.29 secs) in winning by five lengths.

So good was Danedream that the best So You Think could have hoped for was second, and, maybe, with a clearer run that’s probably where he deserved to finish.

Would he have won the Arc by going forward from his wide draw? I don’t know, and despite the rumblings of the couch tacticians on Twitter, nobody really knows.

I can understand why trainer Aidan O’Brien and Heffernan went back at the start. The Arc has a history of being run at a cracking pace and they didn’t want to “cook” So You Think and leave nothing for the finish. The way the race was run, I reckon O’Brien and his jockey would have been pleased with their decision at the half-way mark.

However, the European training style probably cost So You Think at the end. He just didn’t have the ping, the acceleration that we were accustomed to seeing when he raced in Australia. It was a grinding effort – he kept coming as he was entitled to do after such a cosy run – but showed none of the turn-of-foot that he displayed winning last year’s Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley.

What disappointed me about the performance was the fact that So You Think travelled sweetly at the back of the field, and then made ground at the 600m to tack on to the back of Snow Fairy (third), the mare he held out at Leopardstown at his previous start. So You Think is a better horse than Snow Fairy on any day, but not at Longchamp.

The pair came on through the field together and Snow Fairy still had a distinct three quarters of a length advantage on So You Think at the finish. All the big horse could gain on the mare in the final 600 metres was about a half length.

Yes hindsight is a wonderful thing. The Arc was to be So You Think’s grand final, and perhaps it was the race to be daring and brave, to leave nothing to chance, not do die wondering what could have been.

Unfortunately, that’s not the nature of the protectionists at Coolmore and Ballydoyle, where reputations must be maintained and not put at risk even for an important, historical race like the Arc. It’s safety first for the stallions of the future and the value of their important service fees.

O’Brien said after the race that the Breeders’ Cup (2000m, Churchill Downs) on dirt was a possibility for So You Think. “He’s a big cruiser and I think he would handle the dirt no problem,” he said.

It’s a pity we didn’t see the free-running horse strut his stuff at Longchamp, but let’s hope O’Brien and senior owner John Magnier let him rip at Churchill Downs.

This story was printed in Inside Racing magazine, November issue. Out now.

It wasn’t so long ago that Exceed And Excel’s stud career was going through one of those lulls that can strike stallions from time to time. During this period, it didn’t take long for breeders to cast doubts on the value of the stallion, especially those spruikers from rivals studs to Darley, where Exceed And Excels stands in the Hunter Valley.

I also had my doubts about him – not as a genuinely good sire of winners, but more as a stallion capable of producing consistently high-class Group 1 performers and sire sons. I certainly doubted him as a stallion deserving of a $110,000 service fee, which he reached very quickly by his fifth season in 2008 and again in 2009.

Like most of Australia’s stallions, Exceed And Excel has had his fee cut – he will stand this season for $66,000 – but in his case it was as much about concerns that he was a top-shelf stallion than the economic forces of a global fiscal hiccup.

Exceed And Excel, who was bought by Darley for a reported $24 million in 2004 just before winning the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (1200m, Flemington), burst on the stud scene with his first juvenile crop in the 2007-08 season with some brilliant young winners, including the headliners Exceedingly Good, Sugar Babe, Believe’N’Succeed and Wilander. The following season he produced Reward For Effort to win the 2009 Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes.

Up went the service fee from $55,000 and so, too, did the expectations. However, the subsequent results didn’t match the hype – before the exciting Helmet burst into the Sydney autumn this year, winning the Group 1 Sires’ Produce Stakes and the Group 1 Champagne Stakes, Exceed And Excel’s supporters were not filling the stands.

Earlier this year, when a yearling buyer asked me to assess a list of stallions who held his interest, my summary of Exceed And Excel was that he was a modern-day Rory’s Jester – a consistent sire of winners and precocious speed. I felt it was a good time to buy them as his progeny were back to realistic prices for a stallion of this calibre.

I think we all need to reassess Exceed And Excel after his outstanding 2011 in both hemispheres.

Exceed And Excel now rates as the most successful “reverse” shuttle stallion to come out of Australia by far. He is carrying the flag for the Australian-bred stallion in Europe where his stocks are on the rise.

In August, Exceed And Excel’s three-year-old daughter Margot Did provided him with his first northern hemisphere Group 1 winner when she won the Nunthorpe Stakes (1000m) at York, and within a few days he sired two more Group 2 winners – the unbeaten star filly Best Terms (Lowther Stakes, York) and the exciting Excelebration (Hungerford Stakes, Newbury).

Exceed And Excel sits sixth on the combined England and Ireland general sires’ list, behind Galileo, Montjeu, Oasis Dream, Dansili and Danehill Dancer. It’s worth noting that if you take the imported So You Think’s earnings (about AUD$700,000) out of High Chaparral’s figures, he’d drop from eighth to 33^rd. (figures as at August 23). That’s not the case with Exceed And Excel who is siring a host of high-class winners across the board.

Excelebration, also the winner of the Group 2 German 2000 Guineas (1600m) in June, is now rated the second best 1600m three-year-old behind the champion Frankel. So impressive is the colt that Darley’s international rival, Coolmore, has in some ways “bitten the bullet” and recognised the colt’s stallion credentials by buying a significant stake in the horse. Coolmore was rewarded when Excelebration won the Group 1 Prix du Moulin at Longchamp in September. The colt is likely to head towards the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Locally, Exceed And Excel continues to rack up the winners; none better than the Peter Moody-trained Kulgrinda, winner of the Listed Penthouse Graphics Stakes (1000m) at Moonee Valley in August, and now one of the favourites for the Group 1 Manikato Stakes (1200m) at the same track in September.

Darley Australia’s managing director, Henry Plumptre, said Exceed And Excel’s success is no surprise to Darley. “When a stallion starts with such a successful first crop, it is hard to sustain it. You only need to look at the stock we have planned from Exceed And Excel in the next five years to see how high we rate him,” he said.

“What he has done in Europe, especially last month, is phenomenal considering he his covering a different demographic off a mare from a fees of only £10,000 and £12,000. The bosses’ (Sheikh Mohammed’s) persistent has paid off and the horse will cover a really good book of mares next northern hemisphere season.”

Exceed And Excel in August shuttled back to Darley’s Kelvinside property near Aberdeen in the Hunter Valley.

Exceed And Excel is not the first high-profile stallion to have a lull before a resurgence in his stud career – his own sire, the great Danehill, had a similar “down time” in Australia in 1997 and 1998 when he struggled to get a decent colt despite siring three Golden Slipper winners at the start of his stud career, only to surged back in popularity in 1999 when Redoute’s Choice burst on the scene. Even Zabeel lost some gloss in the two years before Efficient emerged as the champion young stayer in 2006 and 2007 with wins in the AAMI Victoria Derby and the Emirates Melbourne Cup.

Exceed And Excel is from the imported Lomond (Northern Dancer) mare Patrona. While he has a European and North American pedigree, he was foaled at the famed Kia Ora Stud – just across the Hunter River from Darley in the Segenhoe Valley – and he has all the powerful physical attributes to the archetype Australian sprinter.

Exceed And Excel – Darley’s role call

3YOs

Helmet ­ – multiple G1 winner
Aerobatics – promising Group-placed filly
Chinchilla – multiple Stakes winner

2YOs

Sister to Believe’N’Succeed
Half-brother to Retrieve.
Colt from Brockman’s Lass
Colt from Mnemosyne
Filly from Media
Filly from Brom Felinity

Yearlings

Colt from Brom Felinity
Half-brother to Neroli
Half-brother to Skilled
Half-brother to Mearas
Filly from Camarilla
Filly from Hosannah
Filly from Portillo
Filly from Rinky Dink

Mares booked in 2011

Virage de Fortune (Anabaa-Virage) – Multiple G1 winner
Eldarin (Marauding-Voltage) – dam of Mearas
Grilse (Rahy-Sous Entendu) – dam of Alverta
Rinky Dink (Distorted Humor-Peebinga Princess) – G1 winner

Lion Tamer will miss Sunday’s Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m, Flemington) in preference for the Group 1 Yalumba Stakes (2000m) the following Saturday.

Trainer Murray Baker confirmed this morning that the Underwood Stakes winner is better suited under the weight-for-age scale at Caulfield than he would be at Flemington, which is set weights and penalties.

“He gets a penalty in the Turnbull, which also is three weeks to the Cox Plate, so I think Caulfield will suit him better,” he said.

“He’s very fit after having a long preparation. I’ll give him a solid gallop at Flemington tomorrow (Thursday) morning, which will be his first serious gallop since the Underwood.”

Baker is following a similar path to the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup as employed by previous Underwood Stakes winners Jeune (1994) and So You Think last year. It also is the path he followed in 1990 with his former star The Phanton, who won the Underwood on the way to finishing second behind Kingston Rule in the Melbourne Cup.

Baker still plans to fly from New Zealand to be in Melbourne on the weekend to overseer Harris Tweed’s run in the Listed Bart Cummings (2500m, Flemington) – the race he won last year on his way to finishing second behind Descarado in the Caulfield Cup and fifth behind Americain in the Melbourne Cup.

“Like he did last year, he’s thriving. He still looks like a hat-rack, that’s just him, but his work is sharper and he’s ready to run a good race. I’m glad there is some rain about in Melbourne,” Baker said.

Baker also is considering bringing stayer Mr. Tipsy to Melbourne for some of the country cups. “He won first up at 1600 metres and he’s going really well. I think a race like the Cranbourne Cup, or the Moe Cup, is ideal for him.”

The Baker family has had a mixed week. Yesterday Baker’s son, Bjorn, who is now based in Sydney, trained his first winner in his new environment – Sky Gaze at Bathurst – but this morning euphoria turn to despair when one of his prized young horses, an unraced colt by Lonhro, broke a leg in trackwork at Warwick Farm.

Photo: Harris Tweed (Brad Rawiller), the “hat-rack”, strides to the post at Caulfield last year.