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Spring notes – sixth edition
Underwood Stakes
I might be biased because I am a long-time mate of trainer Murray Baker, but that bias is tempered by the fact I know intimately just how highly Baker rates the 2010 Victoria Derby winner, Lion Tamer.
Lion Tamer showed his class with a dominant second-up win in the Underwood Stakes (1800m). The performance confirmed that Lion Tamer was on track for first the Cox Plate, and then the Melbourne Cup. The last time Baker won this race was 21 years ago, when I also stood beside him to watch The Phantom score impressively.
In Baker’s eyes, Lion Tamer is shaping as every bit as good as The Phantom.
It’s worth noting that rating’s guru Dominic Beirne said the Underwood rated 1.5 lengths superior to any other weight-for-age race this season. He also said that Lion Tamer’s Victoria Derby win was the highest rating Derby since Mahogany streaked away in 1993.
Lion Tamer has had a solid grounding for this spring, which is why Baker is confident he can win the Melbourne Cup on a 2000-metre preparation. “Because of his injury early in the year, which caused him to miss the autumn, he was back in work when most of the other horses were resting from their autumn campaigns,” Baker said.
“He’s done the work.”
Lion Tamer will be attempting to emulate Jeune in 1994 and So You Think last year – both horses won the Underwood before going on to run in the Cox Plate and the Melbourne Cup. In Jeune’s case, he was unplaced at Moonee Valley before winning the Cup, while So You Think won the Cox Plate before finishing third behind Americain in the Cup.
Baker is caught with the dilemma of trying to win races that will lift Lion Tamer’s stallion profile, while at the same time preserving the ambition of the 4YO’s owner, Phil Bayly, to win the Melbourne Cup. Bayly isn’t over his mare My Blue Denim’s luckless second behind Beldale Ball in the 1980 Cup – he also has finished fifth twice with his gallant gelding Harris Tweed in the past two years – and he’s running out of time for revenge.
Baker is now toying with the prospect of missing the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m, Flemington) on Saturday week, and not running Lion Tamer until the Group 1 Yalumba Stakes (2000m, Caulfield) the following week. Somewhere in the program Lion Tamer was going to have a three-week break between races, so Baker is considering it might be better between the Underwood and Yalumba Stakes, which gives him a better two-week run into the Cox Plate.
He also is concerned that the Turnbull has a history of producing unusual results. “It’s not a weight-for-age race and Lion Tamer will carry a penalty for winning the Derby,” he said.
A warning to the doubters about Lion Tamer – he’s nowhere near “wound up” and wait until Baker puts the blinkers on, as he did before the AAMI Vase at Moonee Valley last spring. That will happen on Cox Plate day.
It’s almost impossible to have two spring missions, which is why Baker is aiming for the Cox Plate as a priority in the knowledge he can worry about the Melbourne Cup after that, just as Bart Cummings did last year with So You Think. If he needs more work, he can run in the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes (2000m, Flemington) on Derby day.
Fellow New Zealander Scarlett Lady (seventh) and Lloyd Williams’ improving import Midas Touch (third) were the best two runs in the Underwood Stakes, outside the winner, from a cups’ point of view. Scarlett Lady took a long time to wind up, but she ran the same final 200m sectional as the winner. Midas Touch was outpaced when Southern Speed (second), who also was terrific, raced by him at the top of the straight, but on the line he was switching off her heels.
Glass Harmonium (fourth) was a bit too keen. I’d like to see him settle a bit more, but on that run Lion Tamer has a class level on him. The Caulfield Cup might be his best chance of winning a major this spring.
Playing God (fifth) ran his usual honest race, but is he good enough to win a Cox Plate, I have my doubts. Precedence (sixth), with blinkers on, ran well and he’s not far off showing some serious form. Lights Of Heaven (ninth), ran into a bit of trouble in the straight, but should be aimed at something weaker during the spring.
Shamrocker (13th) put in a performance – she lugged out all the way – that suggests something is seriously wrong. I reckon News Of The World phone hackers would have detected on Sunday the tones of jockey Glen Boss making a few calls to trainers other than Danny O’Brien.
Other Caulfield observations:
Mick Price has a genuine Derby colt in Costly Comment, winner of the Carlton Draught Sweep Handicap (3YOs, 1700m). He’s a tough looking customer, who will continue to improve. The runner-up, Salter, also is heading in the right direction.
Hallowell Belle remains my pick on the Group 1 Thousand Guineas, but Celebrity Girl is learning. There’s not much between the pair.
I am pleased December Draw is through to the Caulfield Cup. He was beautifully ridden by Michael Rodd to win the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes (2000m). Trainer Mark Kavanagh can now settle down and train him for the race without fear of missing the run. The runner-up At First Sight continues to impress, and he will bloom when he gets beyond 2000 metres. These two could quinella the Caulfield Cup, although Scarlett Lady and Midas Touch look equally suited by the 2400 metres under handicap conditions.
George Main Stakes
I can’t wait for Sincero to get to Melbourne. Personally, I wish he was missing the Group 1 Epsom Handicap (1600m, Randwick) because that race doesn’t have a wonderful history of providing Melbourne spring feature winners.
The most recent horse to win the Epsom and the Cox Plate in the same year was Noholme in 1959! Before that it was Chatham in 1932. The case against running at Randwick rests on that statistic alone.
However, Sincero is an outstanding horse, and still a bit of an untapped talent because we don’t know what’s in store when he gets beyond 1600m – I suspect he will deliver.
I am not concerned, as others are, that jockey Chris O’Brien is a bit of a no-name. He certainly knows his horse very well, and like his horse, O’Brien can handle a bit of rough and tumble.
I liked the way Sincero responded when O’Brien asked him – and O’Brien didn’t panic when Ilovethiscity raced by in one quick swoop soon after straightening. Brenton Avdulla went way too early on Ilovethiscity, which played into Sincero’s hands – the son of Umatilla was just too tough when it counted.
And across the Tasman
Jimmy Choux continued his march towards the Cox Plate with a commanding win over Mufhasa in the Group 1 Windsor Park Plate (1600m) at Hastings. According to reports, Jimmy Choux pulled up “big” from the run, and now the plan is to give him another run in the Group 1 Spring Classic (2040m) at Hastings on October 1.
I don’t think there is much between Jimmy Choux and Lion Tamer, so it could be a year when the New Zealand-trained horses fight out the Cox Plate – memories of Bonecrusher and Our Waverley Star (1986); Our Poetic Prince and Horlicks (1988); The Phantom Chance and Solvit (1993); and Solvit and Rough Habit (1994).
Photo: Lion Tamer poses with Natalie Imbruglia before the 2010 Victoria Derby.
Thanks for incorportaing the Dominic Bernie feedback Danny; he certainly seems to have a good handle on form and we don’t hear much about him in these parts.
I think it could finally be our turn again to win the Cox Plate. I’m not convinced of Sincero at wfa: if you take a line through the ex kiwi Zara Dancer, I don’t believe he would get within 6.5 lengths of Jimmy Choux at wfa at home.
The one Australian horse who I see as a danger, but he will need the Strathyr to be as brittle as a Crunchie bar, is Torio’s Quest. Now you probably really think I’m crazy…