Shocking for two

There is no greater fan of So You Think than me. I recognised his huge talent before most when I tipped him to Betfair readers to win last year’s G1 Cox Plate at Moonee Valley. Even I wasn’t ready for what he has done in the following 12 months.

However, my head is taking over my heart and I am tipping Shocking (pictured winning last year’s G3 The Lexus on Derbvy day) to beat him in the G1 Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m) on Tuesday.

The 150^th running of this famous race deserves the crack field that has assembled, and if either Shocking or So You Think win, there will be a fitting level of “greatness” to the result.

Shocking, who has been my Cup pick since he won the G2 Makybe Diva Stakes (WFA, 1600m, Flemington) in September, is backing up for his second Cup win – only six other horses can claim such a record. His win last year was right up with one of the best Cup performances I have seen – right alongside Vintage Crop in 1993 and Doriemus in 1995 – and he has done nothing since to suggest he not a much stronger, classier galloper this year.

He rises 6kg (but it is 4.5kg in real terms, because there is a natural 1.5kg increase from a 4YO to 5YO), which is the same weight increase given to Makybe Diva when she won her first of three Cups in 2003. That’s a measure of how the handicapper Greg Carpenter rates his win. I think Shocking is a horse that can win three Cups, that’s how highly I rate him.

On Tuesday, he meets So You Think on his terms – in the toughest 3200m slog in racing. His good sixth behind So You Think in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes (WFA, 2000m) on Saturday was a perfect, traditional Derby day prelude to what he can deliver in the Cup. And his Caulfield Cup fourth was the run of the race – the Caulfield Cup remains the best guide to the Cup.

So You Think is a sensational horse, and he might blow them away on Tuesday. If he does, he deserves to be rated with the greats – two Cox Plates, six Group 1s and a Melbourne Cup in a dozen starts. Wow!

I am not getting carried away with his Mackinnon win. It’s what should have been expected of a Cox Plate winner against 3200m handicappers. And I am not convinced barrier 3 is a good position for him, especially if he’s tucked away and they walk down the straight the first time. The Melbourne Cup is a totally different race to a Cox Plate and a Mackinnon Stakes.

The international challenge is strong. Americain and Manighar are the best of them, although I respect Godolphin’s Holberg.

Harris Tweed and Descarado will run well, as they handle the conditions. Their Caulfield Cup runs were outstanding and they sit nicely in the middle of the weights.

The tips: Shocking 1, So You Think 2, Americain 3, Harris Tweed 4, Manighar 5, Descarado 6.