Metal to the fore

A wet and wild Caulfield Cup day is not a usual occurrence, despite Melbourne’s often fickle spring weather.

Recent wet Caulfield Cups  have been won by Elvstroem (2004) on a dead track and Ethereal (2001) and Doriemus (1995) in the slow.

Tomorrow’s track – somewhere between slow and heavy – will be the wettest since Mannerism ploughed through the mud to touch out Veandercross in 1992; before that it was Lord Reims in 1987.

The wet trackers this year include many of the favourites, particularly Shocking, Metal Bender (pictured), Herculian Prince and Faint Perfume, so there has been little change to the betting order since the rain arrived on Wednesday.

I expect money to come for the Kiwi mudder Harris Tweed, Monaco Consul and Luca Cumani’s Manighar. Lloyd Williams’ import Mourayan essentially has firm track form, but he did run third in the G1 Irish Derby on a dead track – I would consider a Curragh dead to be like a Caulfield slow.

Alcopop is one of the unknowns. His best runs are on firm ground, but his form shows a slow win in the JRC Cup at Moonee Valley – the Moonee Valley StrathAyr slow is a totally different surface that what he will get at Caulfield.

I’m sticking with the view I have held since the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on October – Metal Bender. I declared after that race that I had seen the Caulfield Cup winner and the Melbourne Cup winner; I believe Shocking is a near certainty to win the Melbourne Cup.

Metal Bender is yet to prove himself at 2400 metres, but his 2000m form is outstanding, winning the 2009 G1 Rosehill Guineas and 2010 G1 Doomben Cup. His fourth in the Turnbull, with any luck, could have been a win, as he was badly blocked in the early part of the straight.

The wet track will bring Metal Bender and Shocking closer together in the Caulfield Cup, in fact, it will probably favor the proven, tough stayer a little more.

Shocking has an amazing record at 2400 metres or further – four tries for two wins and two seconds, all at Group level. Expect him to be in the finish.

I expect Harris Tweed to run a mighty race now that the rain has arrived. He won the G2 Tulloch Stakes (2000m) in
the wet last year. I still regard his fifth in last year’s Melbourne Cup as the second best run in the race behind
the winner Shocking.

Herculian Prince will set a hectic pace and he needs to bounce out to get to the front early. The concern is that it is no easy task to lead and win a Caulfield Cup, especially without having raced at Caulfield before.

Faint Perfume gets blinkers for the first time. It should see her improve on her recent moderate form.