I think he will

There is certainly an aura around this year’s Group 1 Cox Plate (wfa, 2040m) at Moonee Valley that hasn’t existed since Makybe Diva won in 2005 … and it’s all because of So You Think.

So You Think (pictured winning the Yaluma Stakes at Caulfield) has something very special that few horses can boast – the looks of a film star. Makbye Diva was a nice mare, but she didn’t command attention; Northerly looked like the Man From Snowy River’s pony; and Sunline was a testosterone filled brute of a mare, built like a shot-putter rather than a catwalk model.

I don’t have any doubts So You Think, bar tripping over himself at the start, will win his second Cox Plate, and in doing so create a bit of history being the first 3YO winner to return at four to win it again. Some good ones such as Octagonal, Delta and Carbon Copy have tried and failed.

Even so, I believe this race is far more of a contest than it looks on paper. Gai Waterhouse, the actress-cum-trainer (forever the actress) is standing in the wings with a wonderful mare, More Joyous, who will give So You Think a run for his money.

The barrier draws – So You Think (5) and More Joyous (2) – are such that So You Think will go forward as usual to either lead or sit outside More Joyous. I expect Nash Rawiller will want to take a sit behind the champ. If so,  the crowd will be yelling from the 600 metres, as the pair should clear out.

Last year, Waterhouse’s Manhattan Rain sat behind So You Think but couldn’t hang on to his tail when Glen Boss let So You Think run before the turn. So You Think is a better horse this year and Manhattan Rain has given up the chase for a better life at Arrowfield Stud.

But the Waterhouse team, and most good judges, rate More Joyous a much better horse than Manhattan Rain. She has the talent to more than hang with So You Think in full flight – whether she can sustain it to test him at the end of a tough 2040 metres is the doubt.

A great 4YO male should beat a great 4YO mare. It must be remembered that only five individual mares have won the Cox Plate, and they all tick the “great” box – Tranquil Star (2), Flight (2), Dane Ripper, Sunline (2) and Makybe Diva. If More Joyous can beat So You Think on Saturday, she deserves her place in such illustrious company.

The others seem an even lot apart from Avienus, who looks out of her depth. Any one of seven can fill third place, including the Macau visitor Luen Yat Forever, who ran so well when fourth behind More Joyous in the G1 Toorak Handicap (1600m) at Caulfield.

I think Shoot Out can beat the rest home. A better draw may have seen him split So You Think and More Joyous. He might even do so if the mare is off her game at 2040m.

Trainer John Wallace is adamant he has Shoot Out at his supreme Group 1 winning best. “He’ll be ridden quietly like he was when he won the (AJC) Derby,” Wallace said.

Shoot Out is the horse than can upset the two favourites, and he deserves to be respected. He will carry the sentiment of the crowd following the tragic death of his usual jockey Stathi Katsidis.

Whobegotyou and Wall Street will run well, and old Zipping won’t be far away while he’s in such great form.

Whobegotyou will need to come from last. A bit of rain around will help his chances; Wall Street is a three-times Group 1 winner with a lot of natural talent, so don’t underestimate him; and Zipping has been placed in the past two Cox Plates and, at nine, he’s going better than ever, according to the stable.