Golden Rose preview

The Golden Rose, run over 1400 metres at Rosehill, is Australia’s youngstest Group 1 event, but it hasn’t taken long for this $1 million race to attract a lot of interest – despite warnings from the doomsayers who believe it is run too early in this season.

This year’s field of 15 is the best yet, and includes the 2010 Group 1 Golden Slipper winner Crystal Lily, as well as the winners of these autumn features; the Skyline Stakes (Hinchinbrook), Todman Slipper (Masquerader), The Jansz (Toorak Toff), Silver Slipper (Chance Bye) and Black Opal Stakes (and Golden Slipper runner-up) Decision Time.

The Golden Rose was first run in 2003, when non-graded, and won by In Top Swing (wh0 went on to win the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas); the winners since have been Doonan (2004), Paratroopers (2005), Court Command (2006), Forensics (autumn 2008, due to EI), Duporth (spring 2008) and Denman last year.

Crystal Lily is trying to repeat Forensics’ effort of winning the Golden Slipper and the Golden Rose, although she will be the first horse to do the double in the same year, as Forensics won the 2007 Slipper and the Rose was delayed until March 2008 due to equine influenza.

The filly steps quickly to 1400 metres from her sound first-up second behind Panipique in the Listed Quezette Stakes (1100m, Caulfield) on August 14. She has drawn awkwardly in barrier 10 and I expect jockey Brett Prebble’s only option will be to go forward. I believe Crystal Lily is very vulnerable under these circumstances.

My leaning is towards David Payne’s exciting colt Masquerader, a substantial son of Lucky Owners (by Danehill). He missed the Golden Slipper due to injury in the autumn after a brilliant late-charging victory in the Group 2 Todman Slipper Trial (1200m, Rosehill). The colt resumed in the Group 3 Run To The Rose (1300m, Rosehill) on August 14 and produced a similar big finish for second behind Squamosa (Not A Single Doubt), who had led from the start.

Masquerader meets Squamosa on 5kg better terms for that luckless defeat – the arithmetic is in his favour – and he has drawn barrier two compared to Squamosa out in 14.

Squamosa remains a threat because he might get to the front (at worst share the lead with Chance Bye) with little or no pressure, but the early effort might cost him at the finish against a powerful finishing colt in Masquerader.

The Victorian colt Toorak Toff is regarded by trainer Rick Hore-Lacy as the best horse he has trained since Redoute’s Choice – that’s enough recommendation without taking into account his classy win in the Listed Vain Stakes (1100m, Caulfield) two weeks ago.

Expect Decision Time to run his usual honest race, but his draw (15) is a test, while Ilovethiscity and Praecido (stablemate of Masquerader) are the best chances representing some value.

THE TEMPO – GOOD

The flying filly Chance Bye, drawn barrier 3, is the logical leader on the fence, but expect Gai Waterhouse’s unbeaten colt Squamosa (gate 14) to come humming across to join her early.

It will be interesting to see if Kathy O’Hara, on Chance Bye, will hand up, as the 1400m will be a test for the filly if she is pressured. Expect the Golden Slipper filly Crystal Lily to go forward, but whether she gets in with cover will depend on Squamosa’s early pressure that might break up the field.

It could be that this trio might dictate a steady tempo, allowing for a sprint home, and making it harder for those smart colts and fillies who prefer a late charge.

View our SPEED MAP for the Golden Rose.

The tips: Masquerader 1; Toorak Toff 2, Sqamosa 3 – the value bet is Praecido.

Photo: Masquerader winning the Todman Slipper Trial (Sportpix).