George Main Joy

Not too many people outside trainer Gai Waterhouse will know the tactics she will employ in Saturday’s Group 1 George Main Stakes (wfa 1600m) at Randwick.

Waterhouse saddles up the two dominant favourites – and two of her personal favourites – the brilliant young More Joyous and the veteran stable star Theseo (pictured).

Waterhouse said it is not her preference for the two horses to clash, but winning Group 1 races is her aim.

Both horses can lead, and one of them will. The other is likely to be sitting second. But which way will it be?

I have gone for More Joyous leading Theseo … and More Joyous winning. I believe More Joyous, drawn in five, has more natural early pace than Theseo (barrier four), so I believe jockey Corey Brown will take her to the front as he did in the Group 2 Theo Marks Quality (wfa 1400m) at Rosehill. More Joyous cruised and then skipped home her final 600m in 33.2 secs, giving nothing else a chance.

I doubt Waterhouse’s instructions to Nash Rawiller on Theseo will be “put the pressure on and make it a tough affair”, so I expect More Joyous to get her own way, and have too much speed for the tough Theseo.

If the tactical call goes the other way and Theseo is the designated leader, with More Joyous parked behind him, I believe the race will be run at a more generous tempo, as that is the way Rawiller likes to ride Theseo. If that’s the case, then I still think More Joyous will win, as she has the cruising speed to follow without pressure, and the sprint to out-dash her stablemate.

No matter how I look at this race, I keep coming back to More Joyous winning.

On paper the George Main is a strong one – eight starters and eight Group 1 winners.

But the racing style of the other six runners is to get back off the pace and finish off, which will play into the hands of the front-running Waterhouse pair.

Danleigh and Black Piranha are class acts, and big finishers. They also share a statistic that is concerning – neither has won beyond 1500m. However, I believe that is a statistic in name only, as both horses have some outstanding non-winning performances at Group 1 level.

Danleigh returns from a fourth in the Group 2 Makybe Diva Stakes (wfa 1600m) at Flemington, where his jockey Jim Cassidy said he didn’t handle a heavy track. The conditions on Saturday will be perfect for this horse.

Black Piranha ran second in this race last year behind Road To Rock. His first-up fourth behind More Joyous in the Theo Marks was a bottler, as he ran slick sectionals sitting out wide.

The interesting runner is Trusting. There is no doubting his class, but injuries have restricted him to only three starts in 12 months.

The 1600m of the George Main is suitable for Trusting, and I am happy to forgive his ordinary run at Newcastle, when he trailed then field and didn’t give a yelp in finishing 11^th behind Kenny’s World in the Group 3 Cameron Handicap (1400m). I am looking/hoping for a good run from this horse as he has the ability to be a Cox Plate contender.