Five keys to the Derby

While this year’s Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) at Flemington doesn’t have a high-profile star in the field, there is a depth to the runners that suggests that the Australia’s ability to supply stayers is not on the wane.

This field of 16 runners should provide an enthralling race. The two key form lines, as usual, are last week’s G2 AAMI Vase (2040m) at Moonee Valley and the G2 Norman Robinson Stakes (2000m) run at Caulfield a week earlier. You can basically discount any other race as providing the winner – no Geelong Classic winner has ever won the Derby.

Since 1991, 11 of the 18 Derby winners have backed up in a week from the AAMI Vase, and in all cases bar one the Derby winner has either won or been placed at Moonee Valley. The exception is Redding (1992), who finished fourth in the Vase.

And the same goes for the Norman Robinson – the five Derby winners in that time to contest the Caulfield race also either won or placed.

This year Retrieve beat Almindoro (pictured) and Digital Fortress in the Norman Robinson, while Rekindled Interest beat Lion Tamer and Hollowlea in the AAMI Vase. Hollowlea is not contesting the Derby. So the law of averages says that the winner will come from those five promising young stayers.

I think Almindoro can win the race for the Stevens – trainer Steve Richards and jockey Steven King. Almindoro is a maiden, but his second behind Retrieve at Caulfield was a beauty, and I have watched him at the track since and he has gone on in leaps and bounds. His work at Flemington on Tuesday morning was exceptional. He will stay all day and he will race on the pace. He also handled a very heavy track at Caulfield. This is the young stayer on the up and he represents great value.

I tipped Rekindled Interest to win the G1 Caulfield Guineas, but he got too far back before hitting the line hard. He ran up to that promise with a commanding win in the AAMI Vase. He is a gelding with a sharp turn of foot. My only query is whether he is robust enough to back up within seven days.

Retrieve is a good colt and trainer Peter Snowden is a bit snooty that the horse is not a firm favourite, because he rates the Norman Robinson as a superior form guide than the Vase. From barrier two, jockey Kerrin McEvoy should be able to give Retrieve the run of the race.

I liked Lion Tamer’s run at Moonee Valley. He worked on the pace and held on gamely for second behind Rekindled Interest. The other forward runners finished in the pack, and co-trainer Murray Baker believes the colt needed the hit-out. He is poorly draw on Saturday, and I expect Hugh Bowman will ride him more conservatively. Lion Tamer handles wet ground.

Digital Fortress looked impressive running on well for third in the Norman Robinson. He’s in the good hands of trainer Guy Walter.

The tips: Almindora 1, Rekindled Interest 2, Retrieve 3, Lion Tamer 4, Digital Fortress 5, Ulundi (the roughie) 5.