Fitting the fickle Slipper

The fickle nature of racing 2YOs is never more evident than at this time of the year – Manalo Blahniks to thongs in the time it takes to blink.

The betting market for the Group 1 Golden Slipper (1200m), run at Rosehill on April 3, was turned on its head following Saturday’s Group 2 lead-ups, the Todman Slipper Trial (C&G) and Reisling Slipper Trial (fillies).

All of a sudden, what seemed to be an open and competitive Golden Slipper Slipper is now shaping as a thin, average-quality race with seemingly only a couple of serious chances.

Out the door went the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes winner Star Witness, who was on his toes in the parade ring before pulling up distressed at the tail (12^th) of the field, behind previously unconsidered Masquerader, in the Todman. Trainer Danny O’Brien’s aversion to juvenile racing was re-affirmed with the flop – “I’d prefer to win a cup than a Golden Slipper any day,” O’Brien said pre-race, and he’d be thinking it even more stoutly afterwards.

O’Brien will be licking his wounds and also regretting his decision to send Star Witness to Sydney instead of a restful paddock, which was his firmly stated plan straight after the Blue Diamond. But the lure of the big dollars – the huge prize money, PLUS a $30 million price tag for a well-bred colt winning the Slipper – proved too much for O’Brien and his syndicate of owners.

Equally, the sometimes brooding John O’Shea will be doubting his high-profile filly Solar Charged after she was thrashed by the new Slipper favourite Military Rose in the Reisling. O’Shea said if he had the race over again, he’d have instructed jockey Hugh Bowman to let the filly run along; instead Solar Charged was reefing and tearing outside the leader to the home turn. She finished third behind runner-up Obsequious.

Military Rose, whose dam’s sire Flying Spur won the 1995 Slipper, is an outstanding filly with a foolproof attitude and a brilliant turn-of-foot. She will be attempting to become the first filly to win the Magic Millions 2YO Classic at the Gold Coast in January and the Golden Slipper – only two other 2YOs have done it, the geldings Dance Hero (2004) and Phelan Ready last year.

If there is a doubt on this form it is the fact that the Victorian filly Yosei, a $61 chance, stormed home late to finish a close fourth. Yosei, who debuted with a win in a Benalla 2YO maiden (1100m) in February, came off a third behind Shamrocker in the G2 Sires’ Produce Stakes (1400m) at Flemington on March 6, when she also hit the line hard. She’s a promising filly, but she doesn’t fit the profile of a Slipper winner.

The Todman and Reisling are intriguing races. They are promoted as the key lead-up races to the Golden Slipper – same track and distance and two weeks prior – but the history books show that winning the double is rare. Some star youngsters, including Alinghi, Triscay, Charge Forward, Exceed And Excel, General Nediym, Imagele and Octagonal, have won the Group 2 lead-up only to have failed in the Slipper.

Only three colts and geldings have completed the Todman–Golden Slipper double – Tierce (1991), Marauding (1995) and Luskin Star (1977). The fillies have faired a little better with five taking the Reisling-Golden Slipper double – Polar Success (2003), Belle du Jour (2000), Merlene (1996), Burst (1992) and Hartshill (1974).

On Saturday, the Group 2 Magic Night Stakes (1200m, fillies) and Pago Pago Stakes (1200m, C&G) are the last chance stakes for Slipper contenders to secure a run or to make an impact on the race. Both races have an identical history, in relation to the Slipper, to the Todman and the Reisling; three winning colts and geldings have backed up within a week to win the Slipper (Stratum, 2005; Rory’s Jester, 1985; and Inspired, 1984), while five fillies have claimed the double – Bint Marscay (1993), Bounding Away (1986), Dark Eclipse (1980), Century Miss (1979) and Toy Show (1975).

Photo: Real Saga, now standing at Glenlogan Park Stud, won last year’s Group 2 Todman Slipper Trial at Rosehill.

The breeding lines:

Star Witness (ch c 2, Starcraft (NZ)–Leone Chiara, by Lion Hunter)

Masquerader (b c 2, Lucky Owners–Ion You, by Geiger Counter (USA))

Military Rose (b f 2, General Nediym–Bella Maddelena, by Flying Spur)

Solar Charged (b f 2, Charge Forward–Soul Singer, by Danehill (USA))

Yosei (b f 2, Invincible Spirit (IRE)–Fuji Fairy, by Fuji Kiseki (JPN))

Obsequious (br f 2, Lonhro–Sycophant, by Commands)

Shamrocker (b f 2, O’Reilly (NZ)–Bohemian Blues, by Blues Traveller (IRE))