Dato Tan is the right path

The Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (registered name John F. Feehan Stakes) has quickly become the best guide to the Cox Plate.

While the Group 1 Yalumba Stakes (wfa, 2000m, Caulfield), run two weeks before the Cox Plate, has provided 12 horses to complete the double, only four of those have come in the past 27 years.

In the same period, nine Dato Tan Chin Nam winners have gone on to win the Cox Plate – the most recent is El Segundo in 2007.

Obviously, the fact that trainers are targeting the Dato Tan Chin Nam to give their horses a feel of the tight Moonee Valley track is one reason. Another is the fact that the race fits nicely in the fortnightly race sequence with the Group 2 Liston Stakes (wfa, 1400m, Caulfield, August 14) and Group 2 Memsie Stakes (wfa, 1400m, Caulfield, August 28).

The three main combatants in this year’s quality Dato Tan field – Typhoon Tracy, Shoot Out (pictured) and Whobegotyou – clashed in the Memsie Stakes. ‘Tracy’ and ‘Whobe’ were first-up; Shoot Out, as predicted by trainer John Wallace, has raced every two weeks after winning the Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes (wfa, 1200m) first-up at Caulfield on July 31.

With the Group 1 Underwood Stakes (wfa, 1800m) run at Caulfield next Saturday, these three star gallopers are likely to clash again in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on October 2.

In the Memsie Stakes, an unfit Typhoon Tracy led the field, but found the class of So You Think and the strength of Whobegotyou (second) and Shoot Out (third) too much for her as she weakened to finish fourth. Trainer Peter Moody is predicting the brilliant mare will still be short of her peak at the Valley, but this time she won’t have So Yo Think nagging at her tail as she dictates the tempo.

Typhoon Tracy was a dominant dual-1200m winner at Moonee Valley earlier in her career, so the track holds no fears for her … this distance does. So far, 1600m is her optimum distance (even Moody doubts she can run further), and she will need to be close to her top to hold off a more race-hardened Shoot Out, and track lover Whobegotyou, who won this race last year in brilliant style.

My tip is Shoot Out. He had a stroll around the track on Tuesday – the surface was very heavy – which seemed to concern some onlookers, but trainer John Wallace only wanted the entire to have “feel” of the tight circuit. It’s worth noting that Shoot Out will be having his third run since winning the Bletchingly. He has a level of fitness that gives him a big advantage over his rivals, who are both second-up.

I can envisage Shoot Out tracking Whobegotyou and proving a shade too strong in the sprint to the line.

There was a fair bit of criticism of Stathi Katsidis’ ride on Shoot Out after he sat five wide midfield, but Katsidis is in for the long haul on this horse and he didn’t want to risk interference, nor did he want to reef the horse around as the first 800m was run in a slow 52 secs.

The good news is that the rain that has fallen in Melbourne in the past two days has missed the Valley, so track manager Martin Synan believes the surface can improve from its Friday morning rating of slow6 to be in the dead range by Saturday afternoon.