This story was printed in Inside Racing magazine, November issue. Out now.

It wasn’t so long ago that Exceed And Excel’s stud career was going through one of those lulls that can strike stallions from time to time. During this period, it didn’t take long for breeders to cast doubts on the value of the stallion, especially those spruikers from rivals studs to Darley, where Exceed And Excels stands in the Hunter Valley.

I also had my doubts about him – not as a genuinely good sire of winners, but more as a stallion capable of producing consistently high-class Group 1 performers and sire sons. I certainly doubted him as a stallion deserving of a $110,000 service fee, which he reached very quickly by his fifth season in 2008 and again in 2009.

Like most of Australia’s stallions, Exceed And Excel has had his fee cut – he will stand this season for $66,000 – but in his case it was as much about concerns that he was a top-shelf stallion than the economic forces of a global fiscal hiccup.

Exceed And Excel, who was bought by Darley for a reported $24 million in 2004 just before winning the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (1200m, Flemington), burst on the stud scene with his first juvenile crop in the 2007-08 season with some brilliant young winners, including the headliners Exceedingly Good, Sugar Babe, Believe’N’Succeed and Wilander. The following season he produced Reward For Effort to win the 2009 Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes.

Up went the service fee from $55,000 and so, too, did the expectations. However, the subsequent results didn’t match the hype – before the exciting Helmet burst into the Sydney autumn this year, winning the Group 1 Sires’ Produce Stakes and the Group 1 Champagne Stakes, Exceed And Excel’s supporters were not filling the stands.

Earlier this year, when a yearling buyer asked me to assess a list of stallions who held his interest, my summary of Exceed And Excel was that he was a modern-day Rory’s Jester – a consistent sire of winners and precocious speed. I felt it was a good time to buy them as his progeny were back to realistic prices for a stallion of this calibre.

I think we all need to reassess Exceed And Excel after his outstanding 2011 in both hemispheres.

Exceed And Excel now rates as the most successful “reverse” shuttle stallion to come out of Australia by far. He is carrying the flag for the Australian-bred stallion in Europe where his stocks are on the rise.

In August, Exceed And Excel’s three-year-old daughter Margot Did provided him with his first northern hemisphere Group 1 winner when she won the Nunthorpe Stakes (1000m) at York, and within a few days he sired two more Group 2 winners – the unbeaten star filly Best Terms (Lowther Stakes, York) and the exciting Excelebration (Hungerford Stakes, Newbury).

Exceed And Excel sits sixth on the combined England and Ireland general sires’ list, behind Galileo, Montjeu, Oasis Dream, Dansili and Danehill Dancer. It’s worth noting that if you take the imported So You Think’s earnings (about AUD$700,000) out of High Chaparral’s figures, he’d drop from eighth to 33^rd. (figures as at August 23). That’s not the case with Exceed And Excel who is siring a host of high-class winners across the board.

Excelebration, also the winner of the Group 2 German 2000 Guineas (1600m) in June, is now rated the second best 1600m three-year-old behind the champion Frankel. So impressive is the colt that Darley’s international rival, Coolmore, has in some ways “bitten the bullet” and recognised the colt’s stallion credentials by buying a significant stake in the horse. Coolmore was rewarded when Excelebration won the Group 1 Prix du Moulin at Longchamp in September. The colt is likely to head towards the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Locally, Exceed And Excel continues to rack up the winners; none better than the Peter Moody-trained Kulgrinda, winner of the Listed Penthouse Graphics Stakes (1000m) at Moonee Valley in August, and now one of the favourites for the Group 1 Manikato Stakes (1200m) at the same track in September.

Darley Australia’s managing director, Henry Plumptre, said Exceed And Excel’s success is no surprise to Darley. “When a stallion starts with such a successful first crop, it is hard to sustain it. You only need to look at the stock we have planned from Exceed And Excel in the next five years to see how high we rate him,” he said.

“What he has done in Europe, especially last month, is phenomenal considering he his covering a different demographic off a mare from a fees of only £10,000 and £12,000. The bosses’ (Sheikh Mohammed’s) persistent has paid off and the horse will cover a really good book of mares next northern hemisphere season.”

Exceed And Excel in August shuttled back to Darley’s Kelvinside property near Aberdeen in the Hunter Valley.

Exceed And Excel is not the first high-profile stallion to have a lull before a resurgence in his stud career – his own sire, the great Danehill, had a similar “down time” in Australia in 1997 and 1998 when he struggled to get a decent colt despite siring three Golden Slipper winners at the start of his stud career, only to surged back in popularity in 1999 when Redoute’s Choice burst on the scene. Even Zabeel lost some gloss in the two years before Efficient emerged as the champion young stayer in 2006 and 2007 with wins in the AAMI Victoria Derby and the Emirates Melbourne Cup.

Exceed And Excel is from the imported Lomond (Northern Dancer) mare Patrona. While he has a European and North American pedigree, he was foaled at the famed Kia Ora Stud – just across the Hunter River from Darley in the Segenhoe Valley – and he has all the powerful physical attributes to the archetype Australian sprinter.

Exceed And Excel – Darley’s role call

3YOs

Helmet ­ – multiple G1 winner
Aerobatics – promising Group-placed filly
Chinchilla – multiple Stakes winner

2YOs

Sister to Believe’N’Succeed
Half-brother to Retrieve.
Colt from Brockman’s Lass
Colt from Mnemosyne
Filly from Media
Filly from Brom Felinity

Yearlings

Colt from Brom Felinity
Half-brother to Neroli
Half-brother to Skilled
Half-brother to Mearas
Filly from Camarilla
Filly from Hosannah
Filly from Portillo
Filly from Rinky Dink

Mares booked in 2011

Virage de Fortune (Anabaa-Virage) – Multiple G1 winner
Eldarin (Marauding-Voltage) – dam of Mearas
Grilse (Rahy-Sous Entendu) – dam of Alverta
Rinky Dink (Distorted Humor-Peebinga Princess) – G1 winner

Lion Tamer will miss Sunday’s Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m, Flemington) in preference for the Group 1 Yalumba Stakes (2000m) the following Saturday.

Trainer Murray Baker confirmed this morning that the Underwood Stakes winner is better suited under the weight-for-age scale at Caulfield than he would be at Flemington, which is set weights and penalties.

“He gets a penalty in the Turnbull, which also is three weeks to the Cox Plate, so I think Caulfield will suit him better,” he said.

“He’s very fit after having a long preparation. I’ll give him a solid gallop at Flemington tomorrow (Thursday) morning, which will be his first serious gallop since the Underwood.”

Baker is following a similar path to the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup as employed by previous Underwood Stakes winners Jeune (1994) and So You Think last year. It also is the path he followed in 1990 with his former star The Phanton, who won the Underwood on the way to finishing second behind Kingston Rule in the Melbourne Cup.

Baker still plans to fly from New Zealand to be in Melbourne on the weekend to overseer Harris Tweed’s run in the Listed Bart Cummings (2500m, Flemington) – the race he won last year on his way to finishing second behind Descarado in the Caulfield Cup and fifth behind Americain in the Melbourne Cup.

“Like he did last year, he’s thriving. He still looks like a hat-rack, that’s just him, but his work is sharper and he’s ready to run a good race. I’m glad there is some rain about in Melbourne,” Baker said.

Baker also is considering bringing stayer Mr. Tipsy to Melbourne for some of the country cups. “He won first up at 1600 metres and he’s going really well. I think a race like the Cranbourne Cup, or the Moe Cup, is ideal for him.”

The Baker family has had a mixed week. Yesterday Baker’s son, Bjorn, who is now based in Sydney, trained his first winner in his new environment – Sky Gaze at Bathurst – but this morning euphoria turn to despair when one of his prized young horses, an unraced colt by Lonhro, broke a leg in trackwork at Warwick Farm.

Photo: Harris Tweed (Brad Rawiller), the “hat-rack”, strides to the post at Caulfield last year.

Underwood Stakes

I might be biased because I am a long-time mate of trainer Murray Baker, but that bias is tempered by the fact I know intimately just how highly Baker rates the 2010 Victoria Derby winner, Lion Tamer.

Lion Tamer showed his class with a dominant second-up win in the Underwood Stakes (1800m). The performance confirmed that Lion Tamer was on track for first the Cox Plate, and then the Melbourne Cup. The last time Baker won this race was 21 years ago, when I also stood beside him to watch The Phantom score impressively.

In Baker’s eyes, Lion Tamer is shaping as every bit as good as The Phantom.

It’s worth noting that rating’s guru Dominic Beirne said the Underwood rated 1.5 lengths superior to any other weight-for-age race this season. He also said that Lion Tamer’s Victoria Derby win was the highest rating Derby since Mahogany streaked away in 1993.

Lion Tamer has had a solid grounding for this spring, which is why Baker is confident he can win the Melbourne Cup on a 2000-metre preparation. “Because of his injury early in the year, which caused him to miss the autumn, he was back in work when most of the other horses were resting from their autumn campaigns,” Baker said.

“He’s done the work.”

Lion Tamer will be attempting to emulate Jeune in 1994 and So You Think last year – both horses won the Underwood before going on to run in the Cox Plate and the Melbourne Cup. In Jeune’s case, he was unplaced at Moonee Valley before winning the Cup, while So You Think won the Cox Plate before finishing third behind Americain in the Cup.

Baker is caught with the dilemma of trying to win races that will lift Lion Tamer’s stallion profile, while at the same time preserving the ambition of the 4YO’s owner, Phil Bayly, to win the Melbourne Cup. Bayly isn’t over his mare My Blue Denim’s luckless second behind Beldale Ball in the 1980 Cup – he also has finished fifth twice with his gallant gelding Harris Tweed in the past two years – and he’s running out of time for revenge.

Baker is now toying with the prospect of missing the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m, Flemington) on Saturday week, and not running Lion Tamer until the Group 1 Yalumba Stakes (2000m, Caulfield) the following week. Somewhere in the program Lion Tamer was going to have a three-week break between races, so Baker is considering it might be better between the Underwood and Yalumba Stakes, which gives him a better two-week run into the Cox Plate.

He also is concerned that the Turnbull has a history of producing unusual results. “It’s not a weight-for-age race and Lion Tamer will carry a penalty for winning the Derby,” he said.

A warning to the doubters about Lion Tamer – he’s nowhere near “wound up” and wait until Baker puts the blinkers on, as he did before the AAMI Vase at Moonee Valley last spring. That will happen on Cox Plate day.

It’s almost impossible to have two spring missions, which is why Baker is aiming for the Cox Plate as a priority in the knowledge he can worry about the Melbourne Cup after that, just as Bart Cummings did last year with So You Think. If he needs more work, he can run in the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes (2000m, Flemington) on Derby day.

Fellow New Zealander Scarlett Lady (seventh) and Lloyd Williams’ improving import Midas Touch (third) were the best two runs in the Underwood Stakes, outside the winner, from a cups’ point of view. Scarlett Lady took a long time to wind up, but she ran the same final 200m sectional as the winner. Midas Touch was outpaced when Southern Speed (second), who also was terrific, raced by him at the top of the straight, but on the line he was switching off her heels.

Glass Harmonium (fourth) was a bit too keen. I’d like to see him settle a bit more, but on that run Lion Tamer has a class level on him. The Caulfield Cup might be his best chance of winning a major this spring.

Playing God (fifth) ran his usual honest race, but is he good enough to win a Cox Plate, I have my doubts. Precedence (sixth), with blinkers on, ran well and he’s not far off showing some serious form. Lights Of Heaven (ninth), ran into a bit of trouble in the straight, but should be aimed at something weaker during the spring.

Shamrocker (13^th) put in a performance – she lugged out all the way – that suggests something is seriously wrong. I reckon News Of The World phone hackers would have detected on Sunday the tones of jockey Glen Boss making a few calls to trainers other than Danny O’Brien.

Other Caulfield observations:

Mick Price has a genuine Derby colt in Costly Comment, winner of the Carlton Draught Sweep Handicap (3YOs, 1700m). He’s a tough looking customer, who will continue to improve. The runner-up, Salter, also is heading in the right direction.

Hallowell Belle remains my pick on the Group 1 Thousand Guineas, but Celebrity Girl is learning. There’s not much between the pair.

I am pleased December Draw is through to the Caulfield Cup. He was beautifully ridden by Michael Rodd to win the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes (2000m). Trainer Mark Kavanagh can now settle down and train him for the race without fear of missing the run. The runner-up At First Sight continues to impress, and he will bloom when he gets beyond 2000 metres. These two could quinella the Caulfield Cup, although Scarlett Lady and Midas Touch look equally suited by the 2400 metres under handicap conditions.

George Main Stakes

I can’t wait for Sincero to get to Melbourne. Personally, I wish he was missing the Group 1 Epsom Handicap (1600m, Randwick) because that race doesn’t have a wonderful history of providing Melbourne spring feature winners.

The most recent horse to win the Epsom and the Cox Plate in the same year was Noholme in 1959! Before that it was Chatham in 1932. The case against running at Randwick rests on that statistic alone.

However, Sincero is an outstanding horse, and still a bit of an untapped talent because we don’t know what’s in store when he gets beyond 1600m – I suspect he will deliver.

I am not concerned, as others are, that jockey Chris O’Brien is a bit of a no-name. He certainly knows his horse very well, and like his horse, O’Brien can handle a bit of rough and tumble.

I liked the way Sincero responded when O’Brien asked him – and O’Brien didn’t panic when Ilovethiscity raced by in one quick swoop soon after straightening. Brenton Avdulla went way too early on Ilovethiscity, which played into Sincero’s hands – the son of Umatilla was just too tough when it counted.

And across the Tasman

Jimmy Choux continued his march towards the Cox Plate with a commanding win over Mufhasa in the Group 1 Windsor Park Plate (1600m) at Hastings. According to reports, Jimmy Choux pulled up “big” from the run, and now the plan is to give him another run in the Group 1 Spring Classic (2040m) at Hastings on October 1.

I don’t think there is much between Jimmy Choux and Lion Tamer, so it could be a year when the New Zealand-trained horses fight out the Cox Plate – memories of Bonecrusher and Our Waverley Star (1986); Our Poetic Prince and Horlicks (1988); The Phantom Chance and Solvit (1993); and Solvit and Rough Habit (1994).

Photo: Lion Tamer poses with Natalie Imbruglia before the 2010 Victoria Derby.

Black Caviar continued the amazing recent run of mares in racing’s most coveted award when she was announced Australian Champion Racehorse of the Year for season 2010-11 at a gala dinner at Crown on Sunday.

Eight of the past 12 winners of the national title have been mares: the others are – Sunline (three times, 1999-00, 2000-01, 2001-02), Makybe Diva (twice, 04-05, 05-06), Miss Andretti (06-07) and last year’s winner Typhoon Tracy.

Only Northerly, Lonhro, Weekend Hussler and Scenic Blast have won it for the boys since Might And Power took out the title in 1998-99.

Since the first Australian Champion Racehorse was won by Rain Lover in 1969, only 16 mares have won the title – the first mare to win it was Leilani in 1975.

Black Caviar earned 301 votes out of possible 318 beating So You Think (208), now starring in Europe, who also finished runner-up in 2010.

Black Caviar, who is unbeaten in 13 starts, had eight starts last season, winning six times at Group 1 level in three states at three separate carnivals – Patinack Farm Classic (1200m Flemington) in the spring; the Lightning Stakes (1000m, Flemington), Newmarket Handicap (1200m, Flemington), William Reid Stakes (1200m, Moonee Valley) and the T J Smith (1200m, Randwick) in the autumn; and finished off her stellar season beating Hay List in the BTC Cup (1200m, Doomben) in the winter.

The brilliant mare also became the first unbeaten horse to win the award.

For most of last season, Black Caviar was the highest rated horse in the world, according to the International Classification and the respected authority Timeform, before the brilliant Frankel knocked her off the mantle.

Like Typhoon Tracy last year, Black Caviar is trained by the horseman of the moment, Peter Moody. The big mare is Victorian bred – the first Victorian-bred winner since Rose Of Kingston won for owner-breeder David Hains in 1982 – thanks to the astute pedigree study of Rick Jamieson from Gilgai Farm, who selected the Eliza Park-based stallion Bel Esprit as the perfect mare for his mare Helsinge (by Desert Sun (GB) from Scandinavia, by Snippets).

Bel Esprit is the first stallion to sire a winner of the award from a cover on a Victorian farm since Maybe Lad (St. John’s Lane Stud, Sunbury) sired Maybe Mahal, who won in 1977-78.

Black Caviar is owned by a group of friends who first thought of the idea of racing a horse together while holidaying on a houseboat in Echuca. That initial group was Colin and Jannene Madden, Gary and Kerryn Wilkie and Neil Werrett, who were later joined by Pam Hawkes (Jannene Madden’s sister) and David and Jill Taylor (friends of the Wilkies). Black Caviar cost $210,000 as a yearling, bought on the bid of Peter Moody at  the 2008 Inglis Melbourne Premier Yearling Sale.

The other awards, apart from Champion 3YO Colt or Gelding, went as expected – Sepoy (Champion 2YO), Black Caviar (Champion Sprinter), So You Think (Champion Middle Distance), Shamrocker (Champion 3YO Filly) and Black And Bent (Champion Jumper).

Star Witness was named the Champion 3YO Colt or Gelding in a year when the fillies dominated over the boys. Star Witness got most votes for winning the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes in the spring and performing well against older horses at the highest level throughout the season, including a second placing in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Golden Rose

Much has already been written about Saturday’s Group 1 Golden Rose (1400m) at Rosehill, but here are a few of my observations.

The best ride – Glyn Schofield on Manawanui – won the race on what is not the best horse. The best horse is Smart Missile, but he just missed a memorable win because of circumstance and a jockey error.

On Friday, I predicted in my preview for Betfair that Smart Missile was vulnerable and a false odds-on favourite because he always was going to be nearer to last and giving the leaders, off a likely slow tempo, a start. That’s exactly how the race panned out, but with a different horse leading– Helmet, racing in blinkers, was expected to take up the running, but he lost all chance of that when he missed the start.

Foxwedge, as expected, was first to find the paint, but Schofield was quick to sum up that his two main rivals were behind him, and sent Manawanui forward to lead. It was the winning move, as Schofield was able to dictate his own tempo before making it a sprint to the line, just lasting from a fast-finishing Smart Missile, who gave him five lengths start from the 400 metres.

Boss made two errors on Smart Missile. The first was his decision to put the horse inside Helmet in the first half of the race. This was exacerbated when Helmet and Smart Missile were checked by Foxwedge at the 900 metres. Boss took away any hope of controlling his own destiny – there is no doubt he should have stayed wide leaving McEvoy no option but to either track him or move inside him. Boss needed to be able to bring Smart Missile into the race before the turn, but being hemmed in on the fence removed that option.

Boss’s second failure was probably the most telling – his decision not to use the whip in his left hand on a horse with a history of laying out. Smart Missile ducked out sharply at the 200 metres while Boss was flailing the whip in his right hand, which cost the colt more than the neck he was beaten by. In his defence, Boss is essentially a right-hand whip rider.

Boom Kiwi jockey James McDonald, on Foxwedge, showed a lack of experience when he seemed to “get lost” on the colt. He was positive out of the gate, only to hand over to Manawanui when the only horse he should have handed over to was Helmet. Then McDonald tried to push off from the fence, only to find himself shuffled back and three-wide – and then he moved back in at the 900m, badly checking Helmet and Smart Missile. Foxwedge confirmed my opinion that he is a B-grader.

Manawanui is a very good three-year-old in a year of very good three-year-olds, but this is the last time I expect him to beat Smart Missile. Both horses are heading to Melbourne for the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m, Caulfield) on October 8, although Smart Missile might first run in the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m, Caulfield) on September 24, while Manawanui will stay in Sydney for the Group 2 Stan Fox Stakes (1400m) on the same day.

Smart Missile reminds me a lot of Encosa De Lago in his physique and action. Encosta De Lago was sensational winning the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes at only his third start. It’s a good race for three-year-olds, and Smart Missile could be every bit as good as Encosta De Lago.

As for Helmet, jockey Michelle Payne, McEvoy’s sister-in-law, might have got it right when she “tweeted” to McEvoy that Helmet needs a session with horse whisperer, Monty Roberts. Paul Snowden, Melbourne foreman for trainer Peter Snowden, replied on Twitter – “… when we get him down here, we’ll sort him out”.

Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes

Jim Conlan, dressed more like Dave Sullivan than a horse trainer, was both articulate and excited by Rekindled Interest’s commanding win in the Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam. Conlan said he is even toying with the idea of not running the gelding again until the Tatts Cox Plate, at Moonee Valley on October 22.

Conlan’s option is to run in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m, Flemington) on October 2. If he completes the Dato Tan (Feehan)-Turnbull-Cox Plate treble he will be only the third horse to do it, joining two of racing’s Hall of Fame stars, Better Loosen Up (1990) and Rising Fast (1954).

Rekindled Interest is an exciting prospect. Who knows where he might sit in our minds at the end of the spring. The knockers are saying this is a below-par bunch of weight-for-age horses. History might prove that an “early-crow” assessment. Everyone wants to knock the form line, but it’s the So You Think form line through Alcopop (second to SYT in the Yalumba Stakes) and Whobegotyou (consistently competitive with the champion last spring) – the So You Think form line is proving to be with the best in the world. You can’t be praising So You Think and at the same time knocking the Aussie form line.

Damien Oliver was blasted for his ride on Whobegotyou, but Oliver was a victim of circumstances, trapped inside a giant horse in Red Colossus, who refused to give him an access to a wide, uninterrupted run.

Linton had no luck after being forced to lead and then handed up, only to be blocked for a run. The grey has come back in great form, but I doubt the Valley is his track. Back to Flemington for the Turnbull. The American import Unusual Suspect ran a bottler after tracking wide – he’s tough and trainer Mick Kent will get the best out of him.

Other observations

Atlantic Jewel is a star and Sharnee Rose will win at her next start if she can find a race that is rung below the best.

Leon Corsten’s Zabeelionaire could be a star in the autumn, and an outstanding weight-for-age horse next season.

Anudjawun was terrific in the 1600m Spotless Handicap. He’s about ready to step up to something better.

I loved the big strides Happy Zero put in over the final 400 metres. This is a world-class Hong Kong sprinter, who may be suited in races 1400m to 1600m.

King’s Rose and Pinker Pinker are top-class mares capable of winning at Group 1 level this spring. King’s Rose, with blinkers on, just might take a step further than Pinker Pinker.

Woorim, Blackie and Response were the standouts in the final race. The three are heading to the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m, Caulfield) on September 24, and they will be very competitive. Remember Response won the race last year.

Finally, ignore the form out of the Group 2 Sebring Stakes (1300m) at Rosehill – Jockey Christian Reith rated Master Of Design beautifully in front in what became a walk, trot and sprint. The next seven behind him all ran well enough under the circumstances.

Photo: Rekindled Interest (Dawyne Dunn) winning the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam at Moonee Valley. Picture Slickpix.

Makybe Diva Stakes

The story of the Makybe Diva Stakes was told before the horses left the mounting yard. Littorio, returning from injury after a year on the sidelines, paraded in magnificent order. He was the standout – looked fit and fresh – and his condition was a credit to trainer Nigel Blackiston.

It was an emotional moment for Blackiston, his staff and Littorio’s patient owners when Craig Williams returned to the mounting yard with his whip raised in triumph. Make no bones about it, Littorio’s win was no fluke, thanks to the culmination of 10 months of training and diligent care.

Littorio (pictured) is a genuine topliner at his best, especially on spacious Flemington where he also has won the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes. Let’s hope Blackiston can keep him sound through the carnival.

In contrast, big Peter Moody looked anything but happy. He was puffing so hard on his cigarette waiting for the odds-on favourite Lights Of Heaven (fifth) to return that he looked like a giant oak tree smouldering after a bush fire.

Don’t prod the wounded bear, I thought to myself, as I sidled up to him, but Moody, after a grimace of a greeting, spoke first. “She blew out at the finish,” was a succinct summary. He was about to espouse on that when a cheeky punter joined in happy and smiling for a chat about something not related to the Makybe Diva Stakes. Moody chewed hard on his dart as he patiently waited for jockey Luke Nolen’s return.

While Littorio glowed in his parade, Lights Of Heaven just didn’t look right – her coat was off, she looked small, light and disinterested. I’m not sure what to make of the run. On that performance she can’t win a major this spring, she’s doesn’t look physically strong enough. Moody differs, believing she wasn’t fit enough and needs racing. He’s considering backing her up this week at Moonee Valley in either the Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam (1600m) or the Group 2 Stock Stakes (1600m, mares). Then we will know more.

I’m going out on a limb. I doubt Lights In Heaven, who has been heavily backed for the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate, is ready for a big spring assignment this year. She won’t be the first four-year-old mare to fail to reach expectations in a gruelling spring campaign.

The Makybe Diva provided some other highlights and lowlights.

Glass Harmonium, who pranced into the parade ring like a Lipizzaner and left just the same after finishing a terrific second, looks a genuine spring contender. He’s one tough horse and the run will do him good, a lot of good. His performance franked the form of My Kingdom Of Fyfe, who was narrowly beaten by the enigmatic Trusting in the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes (1600m) at Warwick Farm. The pair of imports matched strides in races in the Sydney autumn and the Brisbane winter – and they won’t be far apart nor far off the pace in Melbourne this campaign.

Two of Lloyd Williams’ three imports, who ran in the Makybe Diva, ran very well – big ticks for Midas Touch (third) and At First Sight (sixth). Both are improving with racing and they look to be horses capable of taking out a good race in the spring. Midas Touch is a genuine stayer and he seems to have settled in well to our racing style. His record is impressive – second behind Cape Blanco in the G1 Irish Derby (At First Sight third); second behind Arctic Cosmos in the G1 English St Leger second behind Rewilding in the G2 Voltigeur Stakes; and fifth behind Workforce in the G1 Epsom Derby (At First Sight second).

Importantly, At First Sight settled well for jockey Steven King, who reported that information to part-owner Nick Williams, who was running from jockey to jockey post-race like a kid in a lolly shop. I get the impression he was very excited by what he had just seen.

Not all was rosy for Williams. Poor Alandi, the former staying star of Europe, finished last after leading to the turn. For his punishment, he was sent to the Cranbourne trials on Monday, where he finished second in a 1550m trial.

Perth star Playing God loomed to win, but somehow missed a place. Is that a weakness because he did the same in the Australian Cup and the Australian Guineas in the autumn? I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and assess him after his next run. I suspect a set of blinkers might be what he needs.

Of the others: My Bentley(7th) ran out of his skin. Trainer Mick Kent said it’s the first time he has had the former New Zealander free of troubles. Onwards to the Cranbourne Cup. Once Were Wild (8^th, fair, unsuited) and Harris Tweed (13^th, unsuited, ridden upside down, needs racing and a handicap).

Danehill Stakes

Some people were disappointed in Sepoy because their expectations are that this colt should treat his fellow three-year-olds with contempt. But this is a strong bunch of three-year-olds and Sepoy never really looked comfortable down the straight course while jockey Kerrin McEvoy was trying to settle him behind the leaders. It’s part of a learning process for Sepoy, who was a lot happier when McEvoy let him stride clear.

The colt will be a lot better and more switched on when he gets around a bend, and I can see him scampering around Moonee Valley like a pro in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes (1200m) later this month.

Hallowell Belle is a seriously good filly. Moody has been hinting that all spring, but now I am convinced. He was easy on her – like all his horses who raced on the heavy ground at Seymour last month – but she is now coming to her peak. As much as I was impressed with Mark Kavanagh’s exciting filly Celebrity Girl, winner of the first race at Flemington on Saturday, Hallowell Belle has the best form line. She’s my pick for the Group 1 Thousand Guineas (1600m, Caulfield) next month.

Of the others: Unique Quality (3^rd) will win a maiden by 20 lengths. He’s a beauty and a gelding that could kick start the training career of ex-jockey Frankie Stockdale. Masthead (4^th) ran a beauty first-up. He’s lost no ground on Sepoy from the autumn when he was third (Blue Diamond Stakes) and fourth (Golden Slipper) behind the Darley colt. The filly Mosheen (5^th) and the Queenslander Absalon (6^th) ran soundly for weaker/longer races.

Other points of interest:

Dreamaway was unlucky not to win the Listed Sofitel (1400m) at Flemington. The former top-class WA mare, now trained in Victoria by Dean Binaisse ran into more rumps than Bert the butcher before finishing eighth. She paraded well and she deserves to be followed.

The grey colts Specter and Chase The Rainbow fought out a restricted race at Geelong on the synthetic track on August 21, with Chase The Rainbow holding off a strong finishing Specter. On Saturday, in the Listed Henry Bucks (1400m), the roles were reversed.

Specter raced more forward, pushed clear at the 250 metres before holding off a charging Chase The Rainbow. I think Specter, who gave Anthony Freedman his first city winner, is a very nice colt, but maybe the autumn will be his time, whereas Chase The Rainbow is a tough looking customer and trainer Rick Hore-Lacy is right to be confident he might have a serious Group 1 Caulfield Guineas contender.

I was wary of December Draw after he was beaten first-up at Moonee Valley – I doubted his staying ability to win a Caulfield Cup or Melbourne Cup. His win in the final race at Flemington, over 2000m, suggests I am on the wrong leg. This is a very good racehorse, who, with some more Kavanagh polish, could be a star of the spring.

Brazilian Pulse looked ordinary in the pre-race parade and ran accordingly to finish last of 16 in the Group 2 Let’s Elope Stakes (1400m), won by the impressive Pinker Pinker. I suspect trainer Mike Moroney is close to pulling the plug.

In Sydney, Trusting produced one out of the box to win the Chelmsford Stakes after sitting four and five wide. His jockey, Singapore’s star Jose Moreira, didn’t panic and Trusting produced. Take Trusting on trust. I thought Maluckyday ran very well for eighth. Jockey Jim Cassidy was pleased by the way the gelding got home late and I suspect the horse will find his best form once he gets to 2000 metres and beyond.

The three-year-old fillies went around in a farcical Group 2 Furious Stakes (1400m) in which the leaders walked through the first three-parts of the race. Forget the form and go with what we know – Pane In The Glass (4^th) and Anise (5^th) are the best of this Sydney group.

Aidan O’Brien’s dice with So You Think’s fitness almost cost the big horse a win in the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes (2000m) at Leopardstown over the weekend.

This is the second time the Irish trainer has sent So You Think to the post underdone – the other time he wasn’t so lucky when Rewilding ran down the former Australian star in the shadows of the post in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (2000m) at Royal Ascot in June.

On that occasion, O’Brien admitted he’d been too easy on So You Think after two soft wins in Ireland in the entire’s first two starts for his new trainer after So You Think was shipped from Bart Cummings’s stables at Flemington late in 2010 following a majority sale to the Coolmore conglomerate.

On the weekend, So You Think was presented at Leopardstown – his first start since winning the Group 1 Coral-Eclipse (2000m) at Sandown on July 2 – looking as though he’d just come from one of Coolmore Stud’s stallion parades.

It took all of So You Think’s reserves to hold off a game Snow Fairy in the Irish Champion Stakes. There wasn’t a drop left in the tank, and O’Brien heaved a sigh of relief. Snow Fairy is no slouch – she’s won four times at the highest level – but she shouldn’t have been able to get near a fully wound-up So You Think the way the race was run, with the 1-4 favourite following a lead horse, Roderic O’Connor, from the O’Brien stable.

“We think he can take more racing and he’s ready for a busy campaign,” O’Brien said.

Part-owner John Magnier confirmed that there were pre-race worries from the Ballydoyle camp before the race. “It’s a long time since he ran. We gave him a good break since the last day and we were a bit worried about that,” he said.

You can bet the froth off your Guinness that So You Think is in desperate need of some competition. This is a horse that last spring won the Caulfield Stakes, Cox Plate and Mackinnon Stakes before his gallant third in the Melbourne Cup, all in the space of 25 days.

So You Think has always been a “looker”, a big, imposing horse with a handsome head, but under O’Brien’s training regime at Ballydoyle, the horse has grown into a monster, a giant show pony with an arched neck as thick as Magnier’s wallet.

I look forward to seeing a fitter and trimmer So You Think run in the Group 1 Champion Stakes (2000m) at Newmarket early next month before he goes to France for a crack at the Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (2400m) at Longchamp three weeks later.

Once again the charade about whether the horse would come to Australia for a third Cox Plate reared its unwanted head when O’Brien said “nothing is ruled out”. It’s time for everyone to stop asking the question … HE’S NOT COMING!