This year’s Emirates Stakes is a very even affair. It lacks the class of last year’s contest when the exciting So You Think tried to win the race as a Cox Plate-winning 3YO. He led but couldn’t hold off All American.

The chances of many of the runners depends on how well the Flemington track can improve after a week of rain and hard racing. On Friday morning the track was a slow7, and with no more rain, and a bit of sunshine, gthe rating has reached a dead5 on Friday afternoon.

The best form line, I believe, is the Cox Plate. Four horses come from that race – Wall Street (7^th), Captain Sonador (8^th ), Trusting (9^th) and Luen Yat Forever (10^th). The New Zealander Wall Street, who was six lengths from the winner So You Think, finished just ahead of Captain Sonador, beating home Trusting by two lengths.

Wall Street (pictured), with three Group 1 wins to his name, looks to be well handicapped with 55.5 kg, only 3.5kg above the limit. He has 1kg more than Trusting and only 2kg more than the Group 3 winner Rothera.

Wall Street ran an even race at Moonee Valley. He settled midfield on the fence, but lost his place when So You Think turned on the gas at the 700 metres mark. I liked the way he recovered, and jockey Michael Coleman said the horse wasn’t comfortable on the tight Valley track. Wall Street has been working well at Caulfield, and he will be much better suited around spacious Flemington – a slow track also holds no fear for him, as he is three from six on slow ground in New Zealand.

I believe Sniper’s Bullet is the danger. The gelding had his first run for new trainer Robert Smerdon in the G3 Moonga Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield on heavy ground, beating all but Rothera who out-bobbed him on the line. Sniper’s Bullet ran fifth in this race last year and since he has won twice at Group 1 level in the west.

Smerdon deliberately has spaced the gelding’s programme. Expect Sniper’s Bullet to be primed.

Trusting doesn’t signal “trust me” with his form line in the Cox Plate and last Saturday in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes (WFA, 2000m, Flemington) when jockey Jim Cassidy virtually eased him down in the heavy ground. Captain Sonador beat him in the G1 Epsom Handicap and also in the Cox Plate. They won’t be far from each other, but Captain Sonador has the ideal inside draw.

Drumbeats may be a risk at the 1600m – he has won to 1500m – but he’s a very honest galloper who ran a bottler when third behind Sound Journey in the G2 Crystal Mile (1600m) at the Valley.

I am going to forgive Gold Salute his recent form. I tipped him to beat So You Think last year and he ran well for third. He’s down in the weights and deserves another chance at good odds. Keep Palacio De Crystal safe as she will appreciate a drying track. Respect the emergencies Demerit and We’re Gonna Rock – both can win.

The tempo is in the emergencies!

THE TIPS: Wall Street 1, Sniper’s Bullet 2, Captain Sonador 3, Drumbeats 4, Trusting 5, Gold Salute 6.

Bart Cummings is a quotable man, even if his quotes are short, sharp and witty … and don’t mean much.

He often plays games. Gives the media a short grab of what they want, even if he doesn’t mean it.

He can be mischievous. Years ago, when I was working for the Herald Sun, after Let’s Elope’s 1991 Caulfield Cup win, I asked Cummings if he would compare Let’s Elope with his great mare, Light Fingers, winner of the 1965 Melbourne Cup. “For you, I will do it,” he said.

Banner headlines in the paper’s afternoon edition read “She’s as good as Light Fingers” with some supporting quotes from Cummings. Later that day a radio station contacted Cummings for a follow-up, and on air he shot the story down, saying: “I don’t know where he got that information from?”

Somehow, I don’t think the playful Cummings was at large when the Herald Sun’s Matt Stewart quoted him today as being devastated at losing So You Think to the Irish – Coolmore has paid for a major share in the horse, which reportedly values So You Think  at $60 million.

The great man is genuinely devastated, and it won’t be solely at being left out of the negotiations that may have netted him a slice of the action, because his old mate Dato Tan Chin Nam will surely recompense his trainer with a healthy bonus, but maybe not the 10 per cent a trainer can often organise for himself/herself.

Cummings said to Stewart: “I’m very disappointed. I was kept in the dark about this. Normally I’d be part of these negotiations.

“This is a sad day for Australian racing, a sad day for the fans of So You Think. He is still improving, the best is ahead of this horse. He’s still only three. He doesn’t turn four (his birth date is November 10, 2006) until next week.”

The big horse is likely to have had his last run in Australia. Talk of returning for a third Cox Plate in October 2011 is, I believe, fanciful stuff if the horse is racing well – because at the same time the Breeders’ Cup in the US will beckon to seal his greatness and put some icing on the Coolmore outlay.

From now on So You Think will be So You Think Inc. Coolmore will race this horse to achieve the maximum return. He will appear sparingly, and in the races that count to build him as a valuable stallion northern hemisphere breeders will want to send their mares to.

The Irish breeding conglomerate is not in the business of standing one-hemisphere stallions. It gambled on Haradasun – reportedly bought to a value of $50 million – and did the same with Starsbangledbanner ($10 million). Both purchases hit the mark when they won at Royal Ascot. Haradasun won the 1600m G1 Queen Anne Stakes, while Starspangledbanner was brilliant winning the G1 Golden Jubilee Stakes (1200m), and a month later won the G1 July Stakes (1200m) at Newmarket. Healthy books of quality mares in both hemispheres is the result – cha-ching goes the cash register.

So You Think will be set for the Group 1 races at Royal Ascot in June. The Queen Anne is a likely first-up target for the horse, although under Aidan O’Brien’s training regime, the horse could start first up at 2000m in the G1 Prince Of Wales Stakes.

His main target will be the G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) at Ascot in July. In September, there is the G1 Irish Champion Stakes (2000m) at the Curragh, while he can return to Ascot in October for the Champion Stakes (2000m), which, after 133 years, has been switched from Newmarket.

It won’t be easy for So You Think, as he will more than likely come up against a crack 3YO in Frankel, a son of Galileo, who trainer Henry Cecil is claiming as the best horse his has trained.

There is talk that So You Think will be set for a clash with Americain in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (2400m) at Longchamp in October. That’s most unlikely, as the Arc is not generally regarded as the ideal “stallion-producing” race, and not necessarily the perfect fit for So You Think at 2400 metres. On the other hand, the Breeders’ Cup in America is where So You Think can seal his place as one of the greatest horses in the world.

The Melbourne Cup was won with cheers of “Viva la France” when Americain powered past So You Think (third) in the home straight. Little did we know that it was also “see ya later” from the Aussie champ.

Photo: Bart Cummings with So You Think’s 2010 Cox Plate.

Alain de Royer-Dupre is a worthy trainer to have his name on the 150^th Melbourne Cup trophy.

de Royer-Dupre, who has trained 75 Group 1 winners in nine countries, presented Americain in wonderful condition on Tuesday and the big, handsome dark brown horse lived up to his Group 3 Geelong Cup win by overpowering the local star So You Think to win the Emirates Melbourne Cup. He then held off rising star Maluckyday for a most impressive win.

de Royer-Dupre, 66, became the first trainer to win a Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (a race he has won twice) and a Melbourne Cup. This first enhances the international coming-of-age of the Australia’s great race.

Americain is the fourth northern hemisphere-trained horse to win the Melbourne Cup. It started with Vintage Crop, trained by Irishman Dermot Weld, in 1993; Weld won again in 2002 with Media Puzzle; and the Japanese-trained Delta Blues, under the care Katsuhiko Sumii, won in 2006.

Americain was ridden by Hong Kong-based Frenchman Gerald Mosse, who rode a superb race to position the horse midfield, three wide with cover. Mosse has now partnered de Royer-Dupre to win 14 Group 1 races.

This is de Royer-Dupre’s first visit to Australia, and the dapper Frenchman has struck with his first Melbourne Cup runner, just as Weld did in 1983 and Sumii in 2006.

de Royer-Dupre, looking more like an accountant than a horse trainer, said Americain was a simple horse to train. “I don’t know why, but he don’t need too much training. In America, the ground was too firm and maybe the training too strong for him,” he said.

Americain gave Melbourne owners Gerry Ryan and Kevin and Colleen Bamford their greatest moment in racing. Ryan and Bamford had hatched a plan some five years ago to source a horse in Europe to win the Cup. Ryan, a regular visitor to France to watch the Tour de France cycling classic, has developed a passion for everything French, so what better way to combine all his loves.

They bought Americain on the recommendation of Melbourne bloodstock agent Rob Roulston, who sourced the horse from the US in late 2009 when he was trained by Todd Pletcher, after moving from Andre Fabre in France.

Fabre trained Americain to be a promising horse in France for his breeders Alain and Gerard Wertheimer, the perfume kings of Paris, from the famed House of Chanel. But Americain’s poor form under Pletcher saw him come on to the market at a reasonable price of $US220,000.

Ryan, who owns the Jayco caravan business, and Bamford sent the horse back to France and gave him to de Royer-Dupre. The results were immediate. Under the French master, he has won five of six starts … and an Emirates Melbourne Cup.

Americain earned his trip to Australia by winning the Group 2 Prix Kergorlay (3000m), beating Luca Cumani’s Manighar (seventh in the Cup) by three lengths.

It has been reported that Mosse, 43, told close friend David Hayes, whom he rode for in Hong Kong, after winning at Geelong: “We will win the Cup.”

Mosse becomes the third jockey to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and a Melbourne Cup, joining Australian Pat Glennon and Irishman Michael Kinane. Mosse was overcome by the moment when he told interviewer John Letts immediately after the win, “I am excited but I also feel like crying”.

“Honestly, I have ridden in very big races all around the world. I just want to thank everyone here today and everyone has been so fantastic. The atmosphere (is) amazing.”

Mosse, who had finished 21^st on Helene Vitality for Hayes in 2002 at his only other Melbourne Cup ride, described the 2010 experience as being like nothing he has felt in racing before.

Americain is by champion stallion Dynaformer, now aged 25 and covering a few mares at Three Chimneys, Kentucky, from top-class racemare America, who is by champion juvenile Arazi. In a topical twist on the eve of the Breeders’ Cup meeting at Churchill Downs, Mosse also rode Arazi to win the 1991 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Mosse is no stranger to the big occasion.

Americain will return to France with a stopover in Hong Kong for the international meeting at Sha Tin in December. Mosse will be on “home” territory and de Royer-Dupre will be aiming for his third Hong Kong International scalp, having already won a 2400m Vase (Daryakana, 2009) and a 2000m Cup (Pride, 2006).

Photo: Gerald Mosse, on Americain, returns to scale with a French kiss to the crowd after winning the 2010 Emirates Melbourne Cup. (Picture: Sean Garnsworthy, SMG)

The winner of the Wakeful Stakes invariably wins the VRC Oaks. Well, that’s not quite correct, but nearly. There have been 33 fillies win the Wakeful and back up five days later to win the G1 Classic – 12 have done it in the past 26 years.

Last year, Faint Perfume won both races with ease. This year I am not swaying from history, as I believe Brazilian Pulse (pictured) can complete the double.

The tough filly was outstanding winning Saturday’s Wakeful Stakes (2000m) and I can see no reason why she can’t back up to do it again. This filly is as tough as an old boot, and if any filly can hold her form it will be her.

Trainer Michael Moroney has always rated Brazilian Pulse highly, and she is now living up to those expectations. She ran a terrific race for third behind Yosei in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas (1600m, Caulfield) on a slow track after racing wide. She had a similar lack of luck in the Wakeful when she tracked three and four wide throughout, only to power to the post a clear winner from Placement and Heartsareforlove.

On Saturday she was aided by a slow pace that affected the chances of some of her rivals, particularly Dizlago and Shamrocker, who got too far back and never got into the race. Expect both those fillies to improve on their Wakeful flops.

The danger to Brazilian Pulse is likely to be a filly who didn’t run on the weekend. Precious Lorraine raced on Cox Plate day seven days earlier and ran a great race to finish fourth behind the Victoria Derby-contending colts and geldings, Rekindled Interest and Lion Tamer.

Lion Tamer more than franked that form with an effortless 6.5-length win in Saturday’s Group 1 Derby. Rekindled Interest struggled in the wet but ran well for fourth. That’s a fantastic form line for the Oaks. Recent Oaks winners Samantha Miss (2008) and Miss Finland (2006) ran on Cox Plate day, although they ran in the Cox Plate. Northwood Plume (1994) ran second in the Vase.

Interestingly, the fillies have more than held their own against the boys all season. It was an all-girl finish in the G2 Sires’ Produce Stakes (1400m, Flemington) last March when Shamrocker beat Willow Creek and Yosei. A few weeks later, Yosei beat Sasa in the G1 Champagne Stakes (1600m) at Randwick. All those fillies, bar Willow Creek, are running in the Oaks.

Sasa was the eye-catching run from the Wakeful Stakes, charging home late for fourth. She has the Yosei form line after finishing second behind her in the Champagne Stakes in the autumn, but her problem is that her reputation, enhanced by some comments made by her trainer Tim Martin, has preceded her success rate.

Barrier 11 is a worry for Sasa, but if she can get some cover, I think she is one of the three best chances behind Brazilian Pulse and Precious Lorraine.

THE TEMPO – MODERATE

I don’t expect too much speed on in this race.

The indication is that Dizlago will go forward this time, and I expect Shezaten to bowl along in front. Look for the one-paced Dizlago to make it a staying test from the 800 metres.