This year’s Group 1 Yalumba Stakes (wfa, 2000m) at Caulfield might be only a small field of six, but it holds the key to the Cox Plate, run at Moonee Valley on October 23.

So You Think (pictured), last year’s winner, can confirm his favouritism for this year’s race by winning the Yalumba, but at the same time, a defeat will throw the Cox Plate wide open.

So You Think, by the sheer nature of the way he races on the front of the pace, should be able to dictate the terms of the Yalumba and win.

On paper only one horse – a very good horse – Whobegotyou can beat him, or even get close to him.

Are we going too crazy for So You Think? He’s certainly the hype horse with a champion tag. Even his great and long-lived trainer Bart Cummings is rating him as good a horse as he has legged a jockey on (although he’s not including his father Jim’s champion Comic Court, who won this race in 1950, when young Bart strapped the horse and he more than likely legged Jack Purtell on board).

There is a lot to suggest he will need to be right on his game to beat the in-form Whobegotyou, winner last year of this race. In fact, Whobegotyou has a liking for this day, because in 2008 he powered home a most impressive winner of the Caulfield Guineas.

And like last year, when Whobegotyou won the Yalumba, he again has warmed up for this race with a dominant win in the G2 Dato Tan Chim Nam Stakes (wfa, 1600m) at Moonee Valley, beating a strong field, including Typhoon Tracy, Shoot Out and Precedence. That’s a strong form line. There is no doubt that Whobegotyou is at the top of his game, and if there is any flaw in So You Think’s make up on Saturday, then Whobegotyou will beat him.

So You Think has won both his races this spring in a fashion of a star, matched only by his film-star looks. The brown entire cruised home to win the G2 Memsie Stakes (wfa, 1400m) at Caulfield on August 18, before returning 21 days later to beat Dariana and Metal Bender in the G1 Underwood Stakes (wfa, 1800m) at Caulfield, when he gave jockey Steven Arnold plenty of concern.

Arnold said So You Think went into the Underwood too fit and too fresh – a lethal combination for a rider who wanted to settle and relax the horse behind the pace. “He was cranky in the parade and in the barriers. I couldn’t hold him in the early part of the race,” Arnold said.

But when he eventually did get the horse to come back to him, Arnold found he was sitting on a time bomb that eventually went off with a whoosh when he released his grip at the 400 metres.

Arnold has said that it is his aim to have the horse relaxed in the Yalumba, and if that means leading, then so be it. I think he won’t have any other option.

Trainer Bart Cummings, working from his sick bed after fracturing his pelvis, has poured the work into the horse, who looked in great form galloping between races at Moonee Valley last Friday night.

THE TEMPO – GOOD

Unless there is a surprise leader – remember Douro Valley in 2008 – the only two horses likely to take up the running are Red Ruler and So You Think.

If Red Ruler leads, it is unlikely he will run along, and if that’s the case, Steven Arnold has said he won’t “fight” So You Think, and he will be happy to take the front. I see that being the scenario.

If that’s the case, I expect Arnold will allow So You Think, who over-raced in the Underwood Stakes behind the speed, to find a pace that will be comfortable, and this is more than likely going to be a genuine weight-for-age style “good” tempo, with a sprint from the 500m.

THE TIPS: So You Think 1, Whobegotyou 2 … then a space to Empires Choice 3, Red Ruler 4, Alcopop 5, Master O’Reilly 6.

One of Rick Hore-Lacy’s greatest moments in racing came in 1999 when his wonderful colt Redoute’s Choice ran down his brilliant rival Testa Rossa in the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) at Caulfield.

That race, in which Testa Rossa, ridden by Damien Oliver, looked set to win on kicking clear of Redoute’s Choice (Jim Cassidy) at the 300m, is regarded as one of the best contests we have seen in Australian racing in modern times – it probably plays second fiddle only to Bonecrusher and Our Waverley Star’s famous dice in the 1986 Cox Plate at Moonee Valley.

Hore-Lacy (pictured) has waited 11 years for another horse the ilk of Redoute’s Choice, and he reckons he has found it in the shape of the flashy chestnut, Toorak Toff. And ironically, it will be Oliver who will steer the colt in Saturday’s Guineas.

Toorak Toff, winner of the Group 1 Golden Rose, is the only Group 1 winner in this year’s Guineas, although the race does look to have good depth of quality and a nice batch of highly promising horses that are on their way to making their mark.

It is one of those up-and-comers, Rekindled Interest, that I believe can upset the better known 3YOs – and upset the breeders, as he is one of two geldings in a Classic that is promoted as the “stallion-producing race”.

Rekindled Interest is aptly named, as he will rekindle the interest in his trainer Jim Conlan, who returns to the limelight as the private trainer for big-spending Jonathan Munz after falling foul of the stewards, who suspended him in 2006 for 21 months over an elevated TCO2 (bicarbonate) reading in one of his horses.

Rekindled Interest has had only four starts for a first-up win at Bendigo (1000m), and his next three starts have been at Stakes level, including a sensational last-start fifth behind Anacheeva in the G3 Guineas Prelude (1400m, Caulfield) two weeks ago, when he sizzled home from last on the turn to be beaten 1.7 lengths.

Before that Rekindled Interest charged late for fifth behind Soul and Buffering in the G2 Danehill Stakes (1200m) at Flemington.

The gelding will be ideally suited by the 1600m, and jockey Craig Williams should be able to ride him a bit closer. This horse has such a withering burst at the end of his races; he promises to develop into one of our stars.

Toorak Toff and the exciting Sydney colt Ilovethiscity are the dangers. Toorak Toff is tough and Oliver will have him in a winning position. Ilovethiscity worked brilliantly at Caulfield on Tuesday, giving his top-class stablemate All Silent a start and a beating.

I expect Bart Cummings’ colt Kudakulari will run well off a genuine tempo on his way to the Derby; and Intencion’s run in the Prelude was a beauty, and he will be over the odds.

THE TEMPO – GOOD

The logical leader is the Patinack Farm-owned colt Run For Levi, who needs to be out quickly from his inside draw (2) to hold out the pace coming across from wide out, namely the maiden Sydneysider Fort Chauvel and local Seriously Good.

This wide pressure early should ensure a good tempo.

THE TIPS: Rekindled Interest 1, T0orak Toff 2, Ilovethiscity 3, Kudakulari 4, Intencion 5, Anacheeva 6.

Contrary to what you might believe from looking at Melbourne’s football-centric dailies, plenty happened in the big, wide world of sport this weekend outside Collingwood’s triumph. Especially in racing.

FYI thethoroughbred.com.au lists …

LONGCHAMP, Sunday: Epsom Derby winner Workforce won the world famous Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (2400m), giving trainer Sir Michael Stoute and jockey Ryan Moore their first Arcs. Japan’s Nakayama Festa was second, France’s Sarafina third.

Also at Longchamp, glamour mare Goldikova (Freddie Head, Olivier Peslier) won her 11th Group 1 race, a European record, in the Prix de la Foret (1400m).

Other G1 wins on a huge day at the Paris track were: Gentoo in the Prix du Cadran (4000m); Gilt Edge Girl in the Prix de l’Abbaye (1000m); two-year-old filly Misty For Me in the Prix Marcel Boussac (1600m); two-year-old colt Wootoon Basset in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (1400m); and Lily Of The Valley in the Prix de l’Opera (2000m).

HOLLYWOOD PARK, Saturday: the unbeaten Zenyatta took her tally to 19 (14 of them at Group 1 level) with a late surge in the G1 Lady’s Secret Stakes (1700m). If she wins the Breeders’ Cup Classic (2000m) at Churchill Downs on November 6 she is likely to be retired to stud with a 20-20 record. It’s mission possible because she won the race last year.

NAKAYAMA, Sunday: Hong Kong’s second stringer, the Australian-bred Ultra Fantasy (b g 8, Encosta De Lago-Belle Anglaise, by Sir Ivor (USA)) won Japan’s G1 Sprinters Stakes (1200m), a leg of the Global Sprint Challenge. Ultra Fantasy (Ricky Yiu, Alex Lai) started at 30/1. Kinshasa No Kiseki was second, San Carlo third and Dasher Go Go fourth (relegated from second after a protest). Hong Kong’s Green Birdie, favourite at 9/4 and the only other visiting runner, was seventh.

SHA TIN, Friday: Hong Kong’s No. 1 sprinter Sacred Kingdom (pictured), also trained by Yiu, easily won the G3 Sha Tin Sprint Trophy (1000m), his first start since a life-threatening colic attack in March. Australia’s Brett Prebble had the ride.

Prebble also was on the other major winner at the meeting, Lucky Nine, in the G3 National Day Cup (1400m). His double lifted him to 10 wins and equal top of the jockeys’ premiership with South African Douglas Whyte, who had one win on the day.

Sacred Kingdom (b g 7, Encosta De Lago-Courtroom Sweetie, by Zeditave) is another Australian-bred. His win, and Ultra Fantasy’s, prompted the South China Morning Post to call Hong Kong the sprint capital of the world.

KRANJI, Sunday: Singapore’s new wonder horse, Better Than Ever, left his run late in winning the G1 Kranji Mile at 1/5 favourite after being held up for a run. In beating stablemate Waikato by a neck, Better Than Ever (Laurie Laxon, Saimee Jumaat) took his record to 11-11.

And, HASTINGS, Saturday: Wall Street (b g 6, Montjeu (IRE)-Villa Wanda (GB), by Grand Lodge (USA)), trained by Jeff Lynds and ridden by Michael Coleman, won the G1 Spring Classic (2040m). He’s heading to the G1 Cox Plate, also 2040m, at Moonee Valley on October 23.

Good old racing forever …

The form out of the Turnbull Stakes in recent years hasn’t quite delivered for the remainder of the spring, but Sunday’s running of the 2000m Group 1 event should ring true.

Shocking (second behind Zipping) and Metal Bender (fourth) were so impressive that I honestly believe the pair have the big Cups sown up.

Metal Bender’s luckless, charging finish to be on Shocking’s heels was for me as good a Caulfield Cup “trial” as I have seen since Sky Heights won the Turnbull in 1999, Doriemus’ second behind All Our Mob in 1995, and Let’s Elope’s “look at me” dominance of the race in 1991.

Metal Bender, a three-time Group 1 winner, drops from the 59kg he carried in the Turnbull to 56kg in the Caulfield Cup (2400m), run on October 16. He meets Shocking on 1kg better terms from the Turnbull, but more importantly, the Caulfield race has been Metal Bender’s spring mission, whereas Shocking is aiming for the Melbourne Cup (3200m, November 2), which he won last year.

Metal Bender was held up for a run approaching the home turn and only really got motoring from the 250-metre point. He came on hard with big strides, running his final 400m in 23.29 secs (last 400m in 11.87 secs), times virtually mirrored by Shocking’s 23.22 secs and 11.88 secs. They were the only two horses run to the line inside 12 seconds.

Importantly, Metal Bender has now had two starts the Melbourne direction, and he will be greatly improved by the experiences, especially his first look at Caulfield in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes (wfa, 1800m) when, after wobbling on the bend, he got going strongly for third behind So You Think, and 1.8 lengths ahead of Shocking.

You’d have to say the So You Think form line is a few panels ahead of anything else we have seen this spring. So You Think deserves his favouritism for the Group 1 Cox Plate (wfa, 2040m) at Moonee Valley on October 23.

I wrote after the weights were released that Racing Victoria handicapper Greg Carpenter has “tipped” Shocking to win his second Cup, by rating last year’s wonderful Cup win as the equal of Makybe Diva’s first of three Cup victories in 2003 – in real terms both horses were given an extra 4.5kg, as Shocking’s weight – up 6kg to 57kg – includes an extra 1.5kg for turning five.

I know 2011 is a long way off, but Lee Freedman might be eating his famous post-2005 Melbourne Cup words when he said of Makybe Diva’s famous third win: “Go and find the youngest child on the course, because that’s the only person here who will have a chance of seeing this happen again in their lifetime.”

Shocking is right on track to win his second Cup; and maybe a third – he’s that good. The way he’s racing at weight-for-age level this spring suggests he has made dramatic improvement, possibly by as much as six lengths, to be a genuine class act, and a cut above being rated as just another top-flight handicapper.

On Sunday, Shocking was beaten a head by Zipping, but from a Melbourne Cup point of view, he was five lengths clear of his nearest genuine Melbourne Cup rival (apart from Metal Bender), Faint Perfume, who ran a battling sixth; and more than seven lengths ahead of top-ranked young stayers Zabrasive and Dariana.

Nothing that raced against Shocking on Saturday will get near him in the Cup.

Saddle up and take the double – Metal Bender into Shocking – I see that one outlet is offering $76. That’ll do me.

Footnote: Herculian Prince has been penalised 2kg in both cups for his Group 1 The Metropolitan (2400m) win at Randwick on Saturday. His weight rises to 53.5kg. It’s the same penalty given to last year’s winner Speed Gifted. Recent Metrop winners to go on to win the Caulfield Cup – Tawqeet (2006) and Railings (2005) – were both penalised 1kg, as did Hayai, who won the double in 1983.

Herculian Prince is still only equal 22nd in order of entry into the Caulfield Cup, but he’s in a good position to be elevated into the starting 18 on the discretion on the committee.

The third declarations for the Caulfield Cup will be at noon on Tuesday, October 5.

Photo: Shocking (Corey Brown) winning last year’s Melbourne Cup.

Lloyd Williams is living proof that it’s almost impossible to “buy” a Melbourne Cup.

Williams, a leviathan owner and back-seat trainer of his own big team at Macedon Lodge, north of Melbourne, started the spring with 23 horses nominated for the 150^th running of the Melbourne Cup.

More than half of those were bought in the northern hemisphere in the previous 12 months in a raid on such notables as the Aga Khan and Aidan O’Brien, including the Aga Khan’s dual Group 1 winner Alandi, who was made equal top-weight on 58kg with stablemate Efficient (pictured winning last year’s Turnbull Stakes) for this historic Cup.

Williams now believes that it is more that likely he won’t have a runner in this year’s Cup – the only race he really wants to win on the Australian calendar.

Both Alandi and Efficient haven’t made it past second base in their Cup quest. Efficient, the 2007 winner has injury problems, and Alandi will be sent back to Ireland to his former trainer John Oxx.

“I can’t get him going,” Williams declared this week of Alandi. “When I bought him John Oxx said to leave him in Ireland and he’d win the Ascot Gold Cup. I have rung John every week for advice on how to train the horse, but nothing seems to work.”

Alandi had a warm-up run in the autumn for 13^th behind Catapulted in the Listed Straight Six (1200m) at Flemington, but he was completely outpaced when last of 16 behind Shocking in last month’s Group 2 Makybe Diva Stakes (wfa 1600m) at Flemington.

“I have maidens that beat him on the track at home,” Williams lamented.

He has the same frustration with the 2008 Group 1 New Zealand Derby winner C’Est La Guerre. Since Team Williams bought the gelding soon after his Classic win, he has had 14 starts in Australia without winning a race.

He did give Williams a thrill – or a tease – by finishing third behind Viewed and Bauer in the 2008 Melbourne Cup, but that remains his only placing for the blue-and-white stable.

“He’s got me baffled,” William said on TVN after C’Est La Guerre worked at Flemington on Tuesday morning. The bad luck continued when the gelding was made third emergency in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on Sunday. Williams scratched the horse.

“He may run in the (Group 2) Herbert Power (2400m at Caulfield) next week,” he said.

Williams’ nine-year-old stable stalwart Zipping will run for the stable in the Turnbull. It’s the gelding’s fifth consecutive attempt to win the race – his best effort is a third behind Littorio in 2008.

“I don’t think I have had him sounder than he is now for years. I might keep him going until he’s 13 like Mustard,” the owner-cum-trainer said.

Tonight at Moonee Valley between races three and four, So You Think, will gallop in preparation for next week’s Group 1 Yalumba Stakes (wfa, 2000m) at Caulfield.

So You Think’s win, as a three-year-old, in last year’s Group 1 Cox Plate (wfa, 2040m) at Moonee Valley, has been described as trainer Bart Cummings’ (pictured) greatest feat as a horseman.

For someone who has won 261 Group 1 races and 12 Melbourne Cups, that’s some call.

So You Think is hot favourite to win his second Cox Plate on October 23.

Tonight his galloping companion will be a horse that hasn’t won a race for three years – and he just could be on the verge of providing Cummings’ greatest moment as a trainer.

Empires Choice is part-owned and much-appreciated by the great man, so much so that he attempted to stand him at stud at his Princes Farm, Castlereagh, after the son of Redoute’s Choice broke down for a second time in 2009. The decision was aborted after Cummings realised the entire was worth another try on the racetrack.

Empires Choice was so impressive winning the 2007 Group 1 Queensland Derby (2400m, Eagle Farm) that Cummings felt the grandson of the 1988 Cup winner Empire Rose could win the famous handicap in 2007.

An injury forced him out of the 2007 spring carnival, and then the big horse broke down early in 2008. He didn’t appear again until the winter of 2009, only to break down again after three starts.

Empires Choice’s storming third behind More Joyous in last week’s Group 1 George Main Stakes (wfa, 1600m) at Randwick was a stunning performance. If it wasn’t, then we are grossly overrating More Joyous, because Empire Choice ran a slightly quicker last 600m than the winner’s 35.38 secs.

Empires Choice is still in the Melbourne Cup; he has only 51kg, a luxury weight for a horse with the talent to be competitive at Group 1 weight-for-age level. Cummings’ now needs to qualify him for a Cup run.

Don’t doubt 82-year-old Cummings can pull this one off – as he said: “I’m only starting to get good at it.”

Gai Waterhouse might be the ‘first lady’ of Australian racing, but she retains the common touch. Her ability to win over, and win support from, all elements of the social spectrum was on display at the launch of her book Gai – In My Words in Sydney yesterday.

Gai, husband Rob and children Kate and Tom were introduced by radio’s biggest name, celebrity speaker and friend Alan Jones to the “Who’s Who” guest list at an invitation-only launch in the upper reaches of David Jones in the city centre with these words: “Please welcome to the stage the Royal Family.”

It was a term used in jest but not lightly. If the city has a first family – and racing certainly has – it is the Waterhouses. And the crown sits comfortably on Gai’s head.

She has time for all, be they Singo (John Singleton), Harry (M. Miller), Carla Zampatti or any of the other influential, wealthy and immaculately groomed guests. Or any of the stable staff, also well represented at the launch. Or any of her fans, lined up in droves to have their purchases signed post-launch on the ground floor of the store.

Take the staff member who was called forward to be part of the banter at the launch, 75-year-old ‘Crewy’, christened John Brady. Flat cap still in place, he told how he had worked at Tulloch Lodge for 56 years, before telling Gai she would be the better person to tip guests a winner for the big race meeting at Randwick on Saturday when a win in the Epsom or one of the other main races would give Waterhouse her 100th Group 1 success.

Crewy is loyalty personified, and a diary entry in Gai – In My Words helps explain why:

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

A very important birthday for ‘Crewy’, also known as John Brady, who turned 73 yesterday. John walked into Tulloch Lodge more than 50 years ago, a young kid with a crew cut. He said, “I want a job, boss.” TJ replied, “Go and grab that broom and get started, and your name is Crewy.” Crewy is now the No. 1 man at Tulloch Lodge.

His wisdom is next to none and his brew – the nutritious feeds he makes up daily for my horses – has contributed for decades to Group 1 successes. This afternoon we joined Crewy to raise our glasses at the Lansdowne Hotel.

But the new faces get right, royal treatment, too. Take a grey-haired gent in his 70s who introduced himself to thethoroughbred.com.au as Barry J. Bennett from the Gold Coast, “down for the races”.

Barry had waited at the head of the queue for more than 30 minutes to have Gai sign his book, having followed the stable since the mid-1950s when Gai’s father TJ Smith had just begun his 33-year reign as champion trainer.

Beaming Barry repeated what he told Gai as she signed his holiday reading:

“As a 16-year-old I was at Eagle Farm on the Saturday and there was a young trainer leading a big red horse. He said to us, ‘Back it, it’ll win. And back it on Monday and it’ll win again’.

“(It was 1956 and) the horse won the O’Shea Stakes on the Saturday and the Brisbane Cup on the Monday. It was Redcraze and the trainer was TJ. I’ve followed the stable ever since.”

Redcraze became one of the greats of the turf and was an unlucky second as 7/4 favourite to Evening Peal in the 1956 Melbourne Cup.

TJ won two Cups (Toparoa in 1955 and Just A Dash in 1981); Gai has been second twice (Te Akau Nick in 1993 and Nothin’ Leica Dane in 1995) and hopes to break through sooner rather than later – in the running this year are Descarado (in Sunday’s Turnbull Stakes at Flemington), Herculian Prince (in The Metropolitan at Randwick on Saturday) and Once Were Wild (in the Epsom).

The book-launch report, of course, must give the final word to Gai. Asked by Jones why she hadn’t remained an actress because that was all she had wanted to do, ‘The Lady Trainer’ said:

“I did, and I still am. I tread the boards of the turf instead of the stage.”

(Gai – In My Words, published by The Slattery Media Group, is on sale in bookstores and throughwww.gaiwaterhousebook.com.au. RRP $50.)

A big field, firm track and a genuine tempo means that the best horse should win Sunday’s Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington.

For that reason, I believe this race might be set up perfectly for Typhoon Tracy, the reigning Horse of the Year, and could thrust her right back into Cox Plate contention.

Typhoon Tracy needs to overcome a couple of issues – one is the fact she hasn’t won beyond 1600m, and the other is she needs to prove that she can race at her best when ridden from behind.

I do have some queries about her running a strong 2000m, but I am in total agreement with trainer Peter Moody that she needs to get a softer run following the speed rather than be a sitting duck up front making it. Moody made the surprise switch before the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (wfa, 1600m) at Moonee Valley when the mare beat all but Whobegotyou, and he would have preferred jockey Luke Nolen to have snagged the mare back even further.

I believe TT will be a lot fitter on Sunday, and she has the brilliant sprint to track horses such as Shocking and Metal Bender until the famous Flemington clock tower when she can unleash her sprint.

Shoot Out, a struggling third after racing on the wrong part of the track in the Dato Tan, can bounce back on Sunday. Trainer John Wallace has been running the horse every two weeks since the end of July, but he has been very easy on him between runs. Since the Dato Tan, Wallace has upped the ante on Shoot Out’s trackwork, so expect this horse to be close to his peak this time.

Shocking will run well again – it’s Flemington. The 2009 G1 Melbourne Cup winner is unbeaten in four Flemington starts, and his G2 Makybe Diva Stakes (wfa, 1600m) win was proof that he’s more than just a tough, handicap stayer. Shocking and Shoot Out will relish a genuine tempo on Sunday and they represent the dangers to Typhoon Tracy.

I was very impressed with Monaco Consul’s run in the Makybe Diva, especially in the last 200 metres, after jockey Craig Williams got the 2009 G1 Victoria Derby winner straightened. Monaco Consul will follow the rail and he only needs to run up to his best to be in the finish.

Metal Bender, according to trainer Chis Waller, will be ridden a lot quieter than he did when third behind So You Think in the G1 Underwood Stakes (wfa, 1800m) at Caulfield on Sept. 18. Metal Bender is a triple Group 1 winner, who is racing in great form.

THE TEMPO – GOOD

There will be a genuine tempo in this race, even with Typhoon Tracy being ridden from behind as she was in the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam at Moonee Valley.

Expect Zavite, Sterling Prince, Vigor and Descarado to go forward. Importantly, Descarado will want to make this race a genuine staying test. It will suit the back runners.

This year’s Epsom Handicap (1600m) at Randwick is not an easy race to decipher. Few of the runners are going into this race off the back of outstanding winning performances.

I tossed up between Trusting and Black Piranha, two genuine Group 1 horses, and when it came to push and shove, it was Trusting’s pull in the weights that gave him the edge.

Trusting will carry the limit weight of 52kg, whereas Black Piranha must lump 58.5kg – a 6.5 kg advantage when I rate them close to equal on natural ability. Black Piranha has the best record – he’s a dual G1 Stradbroke Handicap (1400m, Eagle Farm) winner and he finished second behind Vision And Power in the G1 Doncaster Handicap over this course.

Trusting is the raw talent, who burst on the scene early last spring as a 3YO, beating the older horses in the G1 Warwick Stakes (wfa, 1400m) at Warwick Farm before finishing second behind Denman in the G1 Golden Rose (1400m) at Rosehill. Trusting’s career has been hindered by injury in the past 12 months, but trainer John Thompson has him peaking at the right time. His last-start third behind the brilliant More Joyous in last week’s G1 George Main Stakes (wfa 1600m) at Randwick is the best form line going into this important race.

Owner Nathan Tinkler chased veteran Jim Cassidy for the ride, because he wants Trusting taken out of his comfort zone on Saturday. Cassidy is riding well, and he’s the man to get the best out of Trusting.

Black Piranha is “flying”. His fourth behind More Joyous in the G2 Theo Marks (1400m, Rosehill) was a beauty, and then he got back and finished off very nicely for fifth in last week’s George Main, making ground on the winner More Joyous over the final 200m. It was an ideal “pipe-opener”.

I expect Captain Sonador to run well. To find confidence I am going back to the autumn when he ran a terrific third behind Shoot Out in the G1 Randwick Guineas over this course. The Shoot Out form line stacks up very well – he’d be a firm favourite to win the Epsom on his terrific Victorian form.

THE TEMPO – Good

Big fields under handicap conditions over the famous Randwick “mile” are a recipe for a solid, genuine tempo.All the speed is wide in this year’s Epsom Handicap. Firebolt (barrier 21) and Bay Window (20) will hunt across, while, as usual, Gai Waterhouse’s mare Once Were Wild will be kicking forward from barrier five to either hold them out or get a position on their backs.

I am sure Corey Brown’s instructions will be to hold the front on Once Were Wild and dictate the terms of the race if he can. Pre-post favourite Neeson has enough tactical speed to settle behind the pace.

This likely genuine tempo will suit all horses that go back.

Photo: Trusting winning last year’s Group 2 Warwick Stakes at Warwick Farm.